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September 1, 2015

by AEA

Climate Vulnerability Assessments Albania

An Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability, Risk, and Adaptation in Albania’s Energy Sector

Understanding Energy Sector Vulnerability

Many countries are increasingly vulnerable to destructive weather events — floods, droughts, windstorms, or other parameters. The vulnerability is driven in part by recent extremes in climate variability but also by countries’ sensitivity to events exacerbated by past practices, socioeconomic conditions, or legacy issues. The degree to which vulnerability to weather affects the countries’ economies is driven by their coping or adaptive capacities.

Seasonal weather patterns, weather variability, and extreme events can affect the production and supply of energy, impact transmission capacity, disrupt oil and gas production, and impact the integrity of transmission pipelines and power distribution networks. Climate change also affects patterns of seasonal energy demand. It is important to explore these vulnerabilities for the energy sector given its major contribution to economic development, the long life span of energy infrastructure planning, and the dependence of supply and demand on weather.

In response to these challenges, the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) has developed a framework for decision-making to support adaptation of energy infrastructure vulnerable to climate change, specifically the Climate Vulnerability Assessment Framework (Figure 1). A bottom-up, stakeholder-based, qualitative/semi-quantitative risk-assessment approach is used to discuss and identify risks, adaptation measures, and their costs and benefits. It draws on experience and published guidance from the United Kingdom and Australia, as well as existing research and literature. The climate vulnerability assessment framework puts stakeholders at the heart of the decision-making process and involves:

Climate risk screening of the energy sector to identify and prioritize hazards, current vulnerabilities, and risks from projected climate changes out to the year 2050
Identification of adaptation options to reduce overall vulnerability
A high-level cost benefit analysis of key physical adaptation options

This overview showcases a pilot vulnerability, risk, and adaptation assessment undertaken for Albania’s energy sector to raise awareness and initiate dialogue on energy sector adaptation. This pilot assessment demonstrates an approach that can be used to help countries and energy sector stakeholders develop policies and projects that are robust in the face of climatic uncertainties, and assist them in managing existing energy concerns as the climate changes. It identifies key direct risks to energy supply and demand and options for adaptation to establish where to focus subsequent in-depth analyses. It also identifies additional research needed to better understand the implications of extreme climatic events for the energy sector as well as potential indirect impacts — such as possible adaptation actions in the agriculture sector that may affect energy supply.

Albania’s Energy Sector is Vulnerable to Climate Change

Water Resources are a National Asset

The River Drin is the main source of electricity for Albania; delivering power for local industry and households, and providing about 90% of domestic electricity generation.¹ Meanwhile, Albania’s rainfall and snow is among the more variable in Europe.² As efforts to counter the impacts of climate change accelerate and as other countries struggle to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, Albania’s ability to produce renewable energy will only increase in importance as a national asset.

But the High Dependence on Hydropower Brings Challenges

Albania already finds it difficult to meet energy demand and maintain energy supply due to the fluctuations in the country’s rainfall and other precipitation on which hydropower depends. As a result, hydropower production can vary between almost 6,000 GWh in very wet years to less than half that amount in very dry years. In 2007, a drought in the Drin’s watershed led to severe electricity shortages and blackouts, affecting businesses and citizens alike. Figure 2 clearly shows lower domestic power production linked to low rainfall in 2002 and again in 2007 with resultant associated high energy imports. It is worth noting that, even with imports, load shedding is still required so the energy consumption data in Figure 2 do not represent the true energy demand.

Other factors constrain Albania’s ability to manage these challenges, such as limited regional electricity interconnections and inefficiencies in domestic energy supply, demand, and water use. Losses in the electricity distribution system were about 33% in 2008. Together, these factors create frequent load shedding and adversely impact Albania’s economic development.

Meanwhile, small hydropower plants compete for limited water resources with the irrigation needs of the agriculture sector.³ This is exacerbated during summer when rainfall is the lowest and agriculture requires greater water supply. Improving the efficiency of water use in Albania’s irrigation system, where 10% to 20% of water resources are lost, is an adaptation mechanism that can help both sectors.

Currently, efforts are underway to address these challenges and improve resource use efficiency. For instance, the Albanian government has recently decided to eliminate load shedding from 2009 onwards and committed to provide 24 hours of electricity supply. Electricity losses from the distribution system were reduced by 5.5% in 2008 compared to 2007 and losses from the transmission system were 3% in 2008, down from 4% in 2006. The efficiency of water use in energy generation has also improved due to better monitoring and management.

Climate Change Looks Likely to Make Matters Worse, Unless Prompt Action is Take

Other energy assets are not immune from climate impacts. Rising temperatures can reduce the efficiency of transmission and distribution lines, as well as the power produced by thermal power plants (TPPs) by about 1% each by 2050. If river-water cooled TPP were developed in future, these would be affected by changes in river flows and higher river temperatures, further reducing their efficiency. Owing to uncertainties in current and future wind speeds, estimates of changes in wind power generation cannot be made. Solar energy production in Albania may, however, benefit from projected decreases in cloudiness as it is estimated that output from solar power could increase by 5% by 2050.

Higher temperatures due to climate change may reduce the demand for heating in winter, but will increase demand for air conditioning and refrigeration in the summer. The seasonality of Albania’s supply-demand imbalance raises this exposure: summer temperatures increase the demand for cooling and refrigeration at the same time hydropower production is most constrained by reduced rainfall. Summer temperatures also coincide with a greater irrigation need in agriculture, which may compete directly with small hydropower plants for the limited water supplies.

Adapting to Climate Variability will become Increasingly Important for the Albanian Energy Sector

A wide range of Albanian stakeholders met regularly over eight months to tackle these questions through a collaborative assessment of vulnerability, risk, and adaptation for the energy sector. Through a series of structured workshops and meetings, they collectively identified and prioritized 20 key risks and options for managing them.

The draft NES does emphasize the need for improved energy efficiency through greater use of domestic solar water heating, improved building standards, use of lower energy appliances, and alternative heating sources other than electricity. These energy efficiency measures are critical and will become increasingly essential as the climate changes.

However, the draft NES should also take into account the fact that the wider region on which Albania depends for energy imports is also facing emerging climate impacts. About one quarter of the region’s electricity is generated by hydropower and regional summer energy demand will rise along with temperatures and economic development. This could increase import prices and reduce supply unless region-wide coping strategies are also devised.

Albania’s Climate Vulnerability Assessment Reveals an Energy Shortfall by 2030

Together with Albanian energy practitioners, the Climate Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment team extrapolated the energy planning scenarios to 2050, as outlined in the ‘active scenario’ of the draft NES, to illustrate potential longer term impacts of climate change on energy supply and demand. Assuming full implementation of the measures already identified in the extrapolated ‘active scenario,’ the potential supply-demand gap was estimated at 350 GWh per year by 2030, equivalent to power generation of 50 MW. By 2050, the shortfall rises to 740 GWh per year (105MW) or 3% of total demand. Embedded within these figures are the more significant seasonal impacts on energy security due to changing demand and production over the year, with summer peak demand increasing when hydropower production is at its lowest.

A high-level cost benefit analysis (CBA) was undertaken to estimate the relative costs and benefits to Albania of supplying the shortfall in its electricity production attributed to climate change impacts. Using financial (capital and operational costs), environmental (water value, greenhouse gas and other emissions, and ecosystem values), and social (disturbance to people and property) parameters identified by Albanian stakeholders, the CBA ranked the sustainability of their options, such as increased energy trade and different types of domestic energy generation (Figure 4).

Figure 4 presents the Net Present Value results in current (2010) US$ terms for each of the options tested, under a ‘base case’ set of assumptions for the period to 2030. Based on this analysis, the most economic options for Albania are to upgrade existing LHPPs and SHPPs in the medium term, followed by development of new SHPPs and TPPs (shown as combined cycle gas turbine, CCGT). Sensitivity analyses confirmed that upgrading existing LHPPs and SHPPs were the most economic options for discount rates in the range of 2% to 20% and, as expected, are insensitive to the value of greenhouse gas emissions.

Albania Has Options for Managing Weather and Climate Vulnerability

There are several critical actions that Albania could take now to support optimal use of energy, water resources, and operation of hydropower plants today. Enacting these steps now will help Albania better manage climate variability and build the country’s future resilience to climate change.

Improving the way that institutions monitor, forecast, and disseminate information on meteorological and hydro-meteorological conditions.

Albania could develop (in-country) or obtain (from elsewhere) weather and climate forecasts appropriate for energy sector planning, covering short-range forecasts (1-3 days), medium-range forecasts (3-10 days), seasonal forecasts, and regional downscaled climate change projections. This information could support energy sector stakeholders to undertake joint climate risk assessments across shared water resources and regional energy networks, and devise agreed strategies to manage identified climate vulnerabilities and risks.

Improving energy efficiency by reducing system losses and encouraging and helping end users to manage their demand for power.

Upgrading Emergency Contingency Plans (ECPs) for hydropower plants where needed, to account for expected increases in precipitation intensity due to climate change. Power producers and local authorities may also need to improve their capacities to implement ECPs, ensuring that they provide sound mechanisms for monitoring weather and its influence on river flows and reservoir levels, as well as communication with downstream communities, and contingency plans for evacuation.

Ensuring the management and development of water resources integrates all sectors energy, agriculture, water supply and sanitation, and cross-border concerns along with environmental and social concerns.

Exploring further adaptation opportunities. Climate change emphasizes the imperative to increase the diversity of its energy supplies through increased regional energy trade and a more diverse portfolio of domestic generation assets. With major investments in upgrading new energy assets on the horizon, and the privatization of assets, the earlier climate risks are considered, the greater the opportunities to identify and implement solutions that make the energy system more robust and resilient for coming decades.

September 1, 2015

by AEA

Energy Albania

Vulnerabilities Albania – Now

Hydropower makes up a significant percentage (about 20 %) of the total installed capacity for electricity generation in Europe (1). It is estimated that the gross hydropower potential would decrease from the present level of 2500 TWh/a to 2400 TWh/a in the 2070s, under the HadCM3 simulated climate scenarios. A decrease of 25 % or more is projected by the 2070s for hydropower potential of about 6000 European power plants in southern and southeastern Europe (2).

Meanwhile, small hydropower plants compete for limited water resources with the irrigation needs of the agriculture sector. This is exacerbated during summer when rainfall is the lowest and agriculture requires greater water supply (3).

The country’s needs for electricity are met mainly by the hydro power plants and in a small scale, by the thermo power plants. The hydro power plants provide about 94% of the produced electricity, while the rest is produced by thermo power plants that use residual fuel oil as fuel and in special cases use steam coal. Drought in the last years reduced water levels for power generation (the Drini river, supplying 95% of hydro power, was at its lowest level for the last 30 years) to the point of severe and frequent power cuts last years (4).

Vulnerabilities Albania – In the future

In areas where it becomes hotter and drier, the hydro power generation could be virtually reduced year round. A reduction in hydro power generation is expected. Albania is heavily reliant on hydro power electricity production. If a severe drought will happen, it will result in less electricity produced by the hydro power plants. The heavy reliance on hydro power sources may be appropriate for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and improving air quality in Albania, but can increase vulnerability to climate change (4).

Climate forecasts project an increase in droughts resulting from global warming and changing hydrology. These changes could reduce annual average electricity output from Albania’s large hydropower plants (LHPPs) by about 15% and from small hydropower plants (SHPPs) by around 20% by 2050. Most of the country has already seen decreases in precipitation. The seasonality of Albania’s supply-demand imbalance raises this exposure: summer temperatures increase the demand for cooling and refrigeration at the same time hydropower production is most constrained by reduced rainfall. Summer temperatures also coincide with a greater irrigation need in agriculture, which may compete directly with small hydropower plants for the limited water supplies (3).

Climate change may also affect the supply of energy from solar and wind power. A likely increase in the global solar radiation and the hours of sunshine duration will lead to an increase in the use of solar energy for different energy services, especially for the preparation of domestic hot water. Since, we are expecting an increase in the wind speed up to 1.3 to 2.3 %, by 2050 and 2100 respectively, compared to the period 1961-1990, it might be interesting to think about introducing wind power plants in the energy schemes in the future (4).

Assuming full implementation of the measures already identified in Albania’s draft National Energy Strategy (NES), the potential supply-demand gap was estimated at 350 GWh per year by 2030, equivalent to power generation of 50 MW. By 2050, the shortfall rises to 740 GWh per year (105MW) or 3% of total demand. Embedded within these figures are the more significant seasonal impacts on energy security due to changing demand and production over the year, with summer peak demand increasing when hydropower production is at its lowest (3).

Despite the negative impact of climate change on electricity production by hydropower plants, Albania’sMinistry of Environment expects the electricity generation to increase from 1,795 GWh in 1990 up to 23,816 GWh in 2025. The share between hydro power plants and thermo power plants is expected to go in favor of the latter. So in 1990, 94% of the electricity was generated from hydro power plants and only 6% from thermo power plants, while in 2025 hydro power plants is expected to contribute by 11,353 GWh or 47.68% and thermo power plants with 12,460 GWh or 52.32 % of the total (4).

Vulnerabilities Europe

Supply

The current key renewable energy sources in Europe are hydropower (19.8% of electricity generated) and wind. By the 2070s, hydropower potential for the whole of Europe is expected to decline by 6%, translated into a 20 to 50% decrease around the Mediterranean, a 15 to 30% increase in northern and eastern Europe and a stable hydropower pattern for western and central Europe (6,8,9). In areas with increased precipitation and runoff, dam safety may become a problem due to more frequent and intensive flooding events (10).

It has become apparent during recent heat waves and drought periods that electricity generation in thermal power plants may be affected by increases in water temperature and water scarcity. In the case of higher water temperatures the discharge of warm cooling water into the river may be restricted if limit values for temperature are exceeded. Electricity production has already had to be reduced in various locations in Europe during very warm summers (e.g. 2003, 2005 and 2006) (10,13).

Extreme heat waves can pose a serious threat to uninterrupted electricity supplies, mainly because cooling air may be too warm and cooling water may be both scarce and too warm (14).

Climate change will impact thermoelectric power production in Europe through a combination of increased water temperatures and reduced river flow, especially during summer. In particular, thermoelectric power plants in southern and south-eastern Europe will be affected by climate change. Using a physically based hydrological and water temperature modelling framework in combination with an electricity production model, a summer average decrease in capacity of power plants of 6.3–19% in Europe was shown for 2031–2060 compared with 1971-2000, depending on cooling system type and climate scenario (SRES B1 and A2) (15).

Overall, a decrease in low flows (10th percentile of daily distribution) for Europe (except Scandinavia) is projected with an average decrease of 13-15% for 2031–2060 and 16-23% for 2071-2100,compared with 1971-2000. Increases in mean summer (21 June – 20 September) water temperatures are projected of 0.8-1.0°C for 2031–2060 and 1.4-2.3°C for 2071-2100, compared with 1971-2000. Projected water temperature increases are highest in the south-western and south-eastern parts of Europe (15).

By the 22^nd century, land area devoted to biofuels may increase by a factor of two to three in all parts of Europe (7).

Demand

It may become more challenging to meet energy demands during peak times due to more frequent heat waves and drought conditions (6). Strong distributional patterns are expected across Europe — with rising cooling (electricity) demand in summer in southern Europe, compared with reduced heating (energy) demand in winter in northern Europe (12).

Adaptation strategies

Small hydropower plants compete for limited water resources with the irrigation needs of the agriculture sector. This is exacerbated during summer when rainfall is the lowest and agriculture requires greater water supply. Improving the efficiency of water use in Albania’s irrigation system, where 10% to 20% of water resources are lost, is an adaptation mechanism that can help both sectors (3).

Albania’s draft National Energy Strategy (NES) sets out an ‘active scenario’ to improve energy security in the decade to 2020. It targets a majority of identified adaptations and describes plans to diversify the energy system by encouraging development of renewable energy generation assets (e.g., solar, small hydropower plants, wind, biomass) and thermal power. It notes the importance of new electricity interconnection lines, some already under construction, to facilitate Albania’s active participation in the South East European energy market. As currently drafted, the NES does not account for future climate impacts on the performance of new energy assets — neither generation nor transmission. The draft NES does emphasize the need for improved energy efficiency through greater use of domestic solar water heating, improved building standards, use of lower energy appliances, and alternative heating sources other than electricity. These energy efficiency measures are critical and will become increasingly essential as the climate changes (3).

Improving the way that institutions monitor, forecast, and disseminate information on meteorological and hydro-meteorological conditions. Albania could develop (in-country) or obtain (from elsewhere) weather and climate forecasts appropriate for energy sector planning, covering short-range forecasts (1-3 days), medium-range forecasts (3-10 days), seasonal forecasts, and regional downscaled climate change projections. This information could support energy sector stakeholders to undertake joint climate risk assessments across shared water resources and regional energy networks, and devise agreed strategies to manage identified climate vulnerabilities and risks.
Improving energy efficiency by reducing system losses and encouraging and helping end users to manage their demand for power. Upgrading Emergency Contingency Plans (ECPs) for hydropower plants where needed, to account for expected increases in precipitation intensity due to climate change. Power producers and local authorities may also need to improve their capacities to implement ECPs, ensuring that they provide sound mechanisms for monitoring weather and its influence on river flows and reservoir levels, as well as communication with downstream communities, and contingency plans for evacuation.
Ensuring the management and development of water resources integrates all sectors energy, agriculture, water supply and sanitation, and cross-border concerns along with environmental and social concerns. Exploring further adaptation opportunities. Climate change emphasizes the imperative to increase the diversity of its energy supplies through increased regional energy trade and a more diverse portfolio of domestic generation assets. With major investments in upgrading new energy assets on the horizon, and the privatization of assets, the earlier climate risks are considered, the greater the opportunities to identify and implement solutions that make the energy system more robust and resilient for coming decades.

Additional adaptation options are (4):

Account for the expected change in runoff / water flow rate in the design of hydropower plants. Hydro power facilities can be designed to accommodate lower and/or variable flow rates by: building hydropower intakes at the lowest possible level; making hydropower plants intakes adjustable; using variable blade turbines, which are adjustable to more variable conditions.
Reduce energy subsidies. In Albania, as in many other ex-socialist countries, energy prices, particularly electricity, are subsidized. Thus consumers pay less than the marginal costs of producing energy. Subsidies can result in a wasteful consumption of energy and can distort the market signals regarding changes in supply and demand, caused by climate change.
Account for the expected change in runoff/water flow rate in the design of thermal power facilities.

and (5):

Building of new and very efficient Thermal Power Plants (TPP) (combined cycle) in order to fill the remaining gap in power supply.
Maximize the share of Hydropower Plants (HPPs) in the face of climate change impacts through the construction of new medium and big HPPs, and the rehabilitation of Ulza HPP and Shkopet HPP (located in MRCA).
Maximize the share of HPPs in the face of climate change impacts through the construction of Small HPPs (most of Small HPPs will be run-out-of-river type they will be much more impacted than medium and big HPPs with reservoirs).

References

The references below are cited in full in a separate map ‘References’. Please click here if you are looking for the full references for Albania.

European Environment Agency (EEA) (2005)
Lehner et al. (2001)
Worldbank (2009)
Republic of Albania, Ministry of Environment (2002)
Fida (2008)
Lehner et al. (2005), in: Alcamo et al. (2007)
Metzger et al. (2004), in: Alcamo et al. (2007)
Kirkinen et al. (2005), in: Anderson (ed.) (2007)
Veijalainen and Vehviläinen (2006); Andréasson et al. (2006), in: Anderson (ed.) (2007)
Anderson (ed.) (2007)
Rothstein et al. (2006), in: Anderson (ed.) (2007)
Alcamo et al., 2007
EEA, JRC and WHO (2008)
Behrens et al. (2010)
Van Vliet et al. (2012)

September 1, 2015

by AEA

Coastal flood risk in Albania

Vulnerabilities – Coastal flood risk in Albania

A sea level rise is projected up to 24 cm by 2050 and up to 61 cm by 2100. This will result in the gradual inundation of low lying coastal areas. The natural communities associated with such areas are expected to move inland (1).

In non-protected lagoons, accretion is expected to occur, following destruction of the low strands separating them from the sea. The formation of new wetlands is expected in Mati (1).

The population living in coastal areas, particularly in beach areas, is seriously threatened by the expected increase, in the sea level. Houses, hotels, roads and agricultural areas etc., situated in the lower zones of the Adriatic coastal line (excluding the territories under the effect of raising movements), will be flooded (1).

The beaches in the areas affected by land subsidence (those of Shëngjin, Kune-Vain, Tale, Patok, Ishëm), and a substantial number of fields (drained in the late 50’s and early 60’s.) will be swept over by floods. Likewise, these floods will find their way into important segments of the local and national roads (including a part of the new road Fushë Krujë-Lezhë running through the former Lac swamp land), potable water supply sources (located in Lezha and Lac plains), as well as many lodging and tourism structures which have been, and continue to be built along these beaches. Also, the floods will partially affect the beaches situated in the territories undergoing elevation (those of Durrës, Golem, Divjakë, Himarë, Borsh etc.), in addition to the tourism infrastructure (1).

The same lot is expected to affect the agricultural land (in the former swamps of Durrës, Myzeqe, Narta, Vrug etc.) as well as dwelling centers and rural infrastructure, which reach up to 50 cm above the sea level (1).

Global sea level rise

Observations

In their fourth assessment report the IPCC reported that there was high confidence that the rate of observed sea level rise increased from the 19th to the 20th century (2). They also reported that the global mean sea level rose at an average rate of 1.7 (1.2 to 2.2) mm yr-1 over the 20th century, 1.8 (1.3 to 2.3) mm yr-1 over 1961 to 2003, and at a rate of 3.1 (2.4 to 3.8) mm yr-1 over 1993 to 2003.

According to satellite altimetry-based data anthropogenic global warming has resulted in global mean sea-level rise of 3.3 ± 0.4 mm/year over the period 1994-2011 (8). According to a recent study, however, this previous estimate of global mean sea level rise is too high and global sea level rise over the period 1993 to mid-2014 has been between +2.6 ± 0.4 mm/year and +2.9 ± 0.4 mm/year (10). According to this same study sea-level rise is accelerating; this acceleration is in reasonable agreement with an accelerating contribution from the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets over this period (12,13), and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections (12,14) of acceleration in sea-level rise during the early decades of the twenty-first century of about +0.07 mm/year. Sea-level rise varies from year to year, however, due to short-term natural climate variability (especially the effect of El Niño–Southern Oscillation) (8,11): the global mean sea level was reported to have dropped 5 mm due to the 2010/2011 La Niña and have recovered in 1 year (11).

Updated satellite data to 2010 show that satellite-measured sea levels continue to rise at a rate close to that of the upper range of the IPCC projections (3). Whether the faster rate of increase during the latter period reflects decadal variability or an increase in the longer-term trend is not clear. However, there is evidence that the contribution to sea level due to mass loss from Greenland and Antarctica is accelerating (4).

Projections

For 2081-2100 compared to 1986-2005, projected global mean sea level rises (metres) are in the range (9):

0.29-0.55 (for scenario RCP2.6)
0.36-0.63 (for scenario RCP4.5)
0.37-0.64 (for scenario RCP6.0) and
0.48-0.82 (for scenario RCP8.5)

Extreme water levels – Global trends

More recent studies provide additional evidence that trends in extreme coastal high water across the globe reflect the increases in mean sea level (5), suggesting that mean sea level rise rather than changes in storminess are largely contributing to this increase (although data are sparse in many regions and this lowers the confidence in this assessment). It is therefore considered likely that sea level rise has led to a change in extreme coastal high water levels. It is likely that there has been an anthropogenic influence on increasing extreme coastal high water levels via mean sea level contributions. While changes in storminess may contribute to changes in sea level extremes, the limited geographical coverage of studies to date and the uncertainties associated with storminess changes overall mean that a general assessment of the effects of storminess changes on storm surge is not possible at this time.

On the basis of studies of observed trends in extreme coastal high water levels it is very likely that mean sea level rise will contribute to upward trends in the future.

Extreme waves – Future trends along the Mediterranean coast

Recent regional studies provide evidence for projected future declines in extreme wave height in the Mediterranean Sea (6). However, considerable variation in projections can arise from the different climate models and scenarios used to force wave models, which lowers the confidence in the projections (7).

References

The references below are cited in full in a separate map ‘References’. Please click here if you are looking for the full references for Albania.

Republic of Albania, Ministry of Environment (2002)
Bindoff et al. (2007), in: IPCC (2012)
Church and White (2011), in: IPCC (2012)
Velicogna (2009); Rignot et al. (2011); Sørensen et al. (2011), all in: IPCC (2012)
Marcos et al. (2009); Haigh et al. (2010); Menendez and Woodworth (2010), all in: IPCC (2012)
Lionello et al. (2008), in: IPCC (2012)
IPCC (2012)
Cazenave et al. (2014)
IPCC (2014)
Watson et al. (2015)
Yi et al. (2015)
Church et al. (2013), in: Watson et al. (2015)
Shepherd et al. (2012), in: Watson et al. (2015)
Church et al. (2013), in: Watson et al. (2015)

September 1, 2015

by AEA

Biodiversity in Albania

Biodiversity in numbers

The mountainous relief, the different geological straits and tips of soil, and the overlapping of Central Europe with Mediterranean climate are the main factors for having such an ecosystem diversity and biodiversity (around 3,250 plant species live in Albania). Some of the 30% of the European plant species, and 42% of the European mammals can be found in the country. Albania’s variety of wetlands, lagoons and large lakes also provide critical winter habitat for migratory birds (1).

The Drini and Mati River Deltas (DMRD) are two of the three deltas on the northern Adriatic coast of Albania, covering a coastal area of 140 km². River deltas are a distinct feature of the northern coastal region. The DMRD harbours significant biodiversity and provide wintering grounds for the endangered pygmy cormorant and over 70 other species of waterfowl and waterbirds. The Drini Delta is an internationally recognized Important Bird Area. The Patok lagoon, within the Mati Delta, serves as an important feeding area for globally endangered loggerhead turtles (2).

DRMD represents a complex and compound system of sandy belts, capes, bays, lagoons and island areas. They also harbour significant biodiversity values in the three types of habitats: marine, wetlands and non-wetland habitats, including forests, shrubs, and open fields where traditional agriculture is practiced. Biodiversity is one of the most important assets of Lezha region, in which DMRD lies (2).

Vulnerabilities Albania

Today Albania has one of the highest rates of biodiversity loss in Europe. Deforestation, soil erosion, uncontrolled land use, and pollution are rapidly destroying precious resources. Unsustainable levels of hunting, fishing and grazing are also threatening diversity (1).

During the last 25 years, approximately 122 species of vertebrates (27 mammals, 89 birds, and 6 fish) and four species of plants have lost more than 50% of their population. The number of rare and threatened species of plants and animals is high and expected to increase (3). 36% of the country’s vertebrate species are endangered or threatened. Efforts are made to establish protected areas. 6% of the country is set aside for this purpose. Unfortunately, even the biological integrity of these areas is compromised several times by illegal activities. Also, monitoring of these zones is inadequate and management plans do not yet exist. In 1999, a National Strategy on Biodiversity and a respective Action Plan was developed and adopted by the government (1).

The main endangered types of ecosystems and habitats in Albania are littoral and coastal ecosystems, such as sand dunes, river deltas, alluvial forests, lagoons and coastal lakes (3).

Marine littoral and estuarine systems

It is possible that plankton productivity could become significantly more variable in marine, littoral and estuarine systems, and this change could have knock-on effects on system ecology and productivity (3).

Coastal habitats

There is likely to be an increase in coastal erosion, particularly along the sandy coast of the Adriatic Sea, leading to further degradation of sand dunes and coastal wetlands, increased salinity, and reduction of fresh and brackish water habitats and species, including alluvial forests (3).

In the coastal zone, an increase in sea surface temperature as well as sea level rise (SLR) of up to 61 cm is expected to place additional stress on marine and littoral biodiversity as well as livelihoods of local communities. SLR, more frequent and intense floods, frequent inundation, and submersion of low lying coastal areas could affect life cycles of species and pose risks of habitat loss and fragmentation. Rising temperatures will also affect the composition and distribution of DRMD’s marine and terrestrial species (2).

Climate change, including variability, could undermine biodiversity conservation efforts in the DRMD’s protected areas, unless the system can fully accommodate mid to long term alterations and management strategies are put in place to respond to climate-related stress. Currently, there are no efforts underway to address climate change impacts on the DMRD ecosystem (2).

Rangelands/pasturelands

There is likely to be a decrease in rangeland productivity, an increasing risk of degradation, soil erosion, and desertification, an increasing sensitivity to disturbance, a change in ecosystem function, and alteration to plant and animal community composition (3).

Forests

Coverage of broadleaf and conifer forests, particularly Beech and Fir forests will be reduced, being replaced by Mediterranean evergreen shrubs and Oak woodlands. Tree species that produce many small seeds and have a high distribution potential would be able to survive and even to spread further. Changes in vegetation composition in forests, changes in structure, productivity and foliage quality will have knock-on effects to other components of biodiversity. Additionally, probable increases in the frequency and intensity of fires will also have impacts (3).

Subalpine/alpine meadows and pastures

Large reductions in snow cover are likely to lead to declines in alpine flora and fauna as a result of changes to habitats, alterations to fire regimes and incursion of feral animals and weeds. … The mountain regions of Albania are already under stress from various human activities, such as illegal and uncontrolled wood cutting, overgrazing, abandonment and/or inappropriate land management, resulting in reduced natural resilience to climate change (3).

Fresh water biodiversity

The Mediterranean ecohydrology is vulnerable to climate change, and can affect flora and fauna of the region. In arid and semi-arid parts of the region, the biggest danger facing the lakes is the expected decrease in water input resulting from increasing evapotranspiration with increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation. This process can lead to conversion of existing freshwater to saltwater (4).

Absence of institutional and individual capacities

The main barrier to the integration of adaptation in regional conservation and sustainable development programming is the to undertake a rigorous assessment of climate change’s potential impact on biodiversity, and then use this information to raise awareness and mobilize programmatic choices (2).

Gaps in information

Albania faces significant gaps in information and uncertainties related to climate changes and their potential implication for biodiversity and ecosystem services. There is a lack of (3):

documentation of impacts that are already occurring in response to existing climate trends;
understanding of the factors determining the resilience and adaptive capacity of ecosystems, including the roles of habitat extent, connectivity and quality, flow regimes and disturbances;
understanding of the factors affecting the distribution and abundance of species, particularly those affecting the establishment and death phases of life cycles, and the identification of migration barriers and refugia;
analyses of the species, habitats and ecosystems most vulnerable to climate changes, including those likely to be negatively affected by species favoured by the changes (such as weeds, feral animals and alien species);
comprehensive assessment of adaptation options available, including the modifications needed to existing conservation planning and practice (in-situ and ex-situ conservation);
analyses of present and future social and economic costs of climate change impacts on biodiversity.

Adaptation strategies

Options for the adaptation of natural ecosystems to the changing climatic conditions are (1):

The establishment and maintenance of protected areas (in-situ conservation). It is important that the required steps are taken to enlarge the system of protected areas in Albania, as proposed by the Albanian Biodiversity Strategy.
The active management of wild populations outside of protected areas (inter-situ management).
The maintenance of captive populations (ex-situ methods). For a number of animals and plant species neither in-situ nor inter-situ conservation measures might be applicable or viable and their survival in the wild is no longer ensured. Their extinction in the wild is not reverse. The only measures to be taken are those of ex- situ conservation. Hence, the support of the Botanical Garden in Tirana to realize ex-situ preservation of endemic and endangered species is an important action, which should be complemented with the future development of such practices for animal species in the long-term. At the same time, the strengthening of the genetic banks within the National Seed Institute, and a laboratory of deep freezing should include preservation of the genetic material of wildlife species.
Monitoring. This is an important research priority, both for biodiversity conservation and because plant and animal populations serve as barometres of ecosystem integrity.

Adaptive capacity in the Drini and Mati River Deltas (DMRD) is being built to ensure resilience of key ecosystems and local livelihoods to climate change. Climate change response measures are identified and then integrated into conservation and development programming in the DMRD. Already the government started to increase the area under protection by expanding the geographic extent of the current protected area network. Coastal dune habitat restoration measures will be / are being implemented and the landscape connectivity and ecosystem resilience will be increased. … By including climate threats, the scope and depth of the targeted conservation and sustainable development programmes will be modified to enhance the adaptive capacity of the ecosystem (2).

In terms of mainstreaming adaptation in the DMRD, both the central government and the regional administration will be critical partners. Key activities: community development projects (e.g., tourism activities); sewage and waste water treatment plans; agriculture sector development plans (including fisheries); sustainable livelihoods of communities (2).

For watershed systems adaptation strategies should focus on increasing their resilience to climatic change. Given the heterogeniety in watershed types, strategies need to incorporate local needs and issues with active participation of all stakeholders. The conservation and sustainability of watersheds in the Mediterranean region is an important issue to sustain local and regional economies and ecosystems. A localized strategy that incorporates watershed characteristics and information is vital to sustain the region. A long-term strategy is needed to involve resilience enhancing measures that will enable watersheds to withstand and transform to climatic change (4).

References

The references below are cited in full in a separate map ‘References’. Please click here if you are looking for the full references for Albania.

Republic of Albania, Ministry of Environment (2002)
www.adaptationlearning.net
Laušević et al. (2008)
Erol and Randhir (2012)

September 1, 2015

by AEA

Agriculture and Horticulture Albania

Agriculture and horticulture in numbers

Europe

Agriculture accounts for only a small part of gross domestic production (GDP) in Europe, and it is considered that the overall vulnerability of the European economy to changes that affect agriculture is low (2). However, agriculture is much more important in terms of area occupied (farmland and forest land cover approximately 90 % of the EU’s land surface), and rural population and income (3).

Albania

Agriculture is the most important sector in Albania, in terms of value added and employment. The agricultural sector still accounts for about 58% of employment (14). The main emphasis remains the production of cereals, however its structure has shifted towards supplying animal foodstuffs instead of human consumption. … Livestock constitutes more than half of the total value of agricultural production (1). Agriculture contributes 21% to the country’s GDP (14).

The share of agricultural land represents only 24% of the total area of the country. About 43% of the total agricultural land is in the lowland area, where the productivity potential is relatively high (13).

The proportions of crop and fruit production are 44% and 11% respectively, while livestock production accounts for more than half of total agricultural production (16). The main agricultural products are grains (especially wheat), vegetables, potatoes and beans (37%). Forage crops (maize and alfalfa) are cultivated on about 49% of total farm surface area (13).

Albania can be divided into three agro-ecological zones, based on soil, climatic, topographic, and socio-economic features including access to agricultural services and inputs, and development of markets and infrastructure (15). Each of these zones will be impacted differently by climate change due to variations in climate, biophysical distinctions, and production systems:

Mountain Zone: 1000-2700 m above sea level. Dominated by pastures and forests. Wheat, barley, Rye and various fruits are grown here.
Hill Zone: 400-1000 m above sea level. Field crops and fruit trees are grown extensively throughout this region.
Lowland zone: 0-200 m above sea level. Citrus, fig and olive trees are grown here.

Vulnerabilities Albania

Risks

A recent report evaluated the risks and opportunities for agricultural production in nine zones across Europe (17). For Albania no opportunities and a number ofclimate change risks have been identified:

Crop area changes due to decrease in optimal farming conditions
Crop productivity decrease
Increased risk of agricultural pests, diseases, and weeds
Crop quality decrease
Increased risk of drought and water scarcity
Increased irrigation requirements
Soil erosion, salinization, and desertification
Deterioration of conditions for livestock production
Sea level rise

Crops

The following impacts are likely in relation to annual crops (13):

The total growing season may be reduced for some crops due to the rise in temperature. Cereals would be harvested earlier;
A lack of cold days during December and January could reduce the effects of vernalisation and consequently lengthen the first part of the growing season for winter wheat. Air temperature in April could slow down biomass growth and reduce wheat yield;
The expected increase in temperature will cause faster rates of development and shorten the length of the growing period for some crops, consequently shortening the length of the grain-filling period;
Higher temperatures during the growth season will increase the development rate of all winter crops, which will therefore face extreme events (cold spells) at a later stage when they are more sensitive;
Higher summer temperatures should not be very detrimental to summer crops (with the exception of spring cereals, if subjected to elevated temperatures during the grain-filling period), since they are more resilient than winter crops. Drought could be a major concern in the future;
Higher temperatures will probably be beneficial to grasslands, at least early in the season, through increased early biomass production. Higher temperatures during the summer may decrease the growth capabilities of grass;
Weeds are expected to benefit from higher CO2 concentrations;
In general, higher temperatures may shorten the reproductive cycle of many pests, thus the risk of crop damage from pests and diseases may increase as a result of climate change.

The available water resources will be sufficient for irrigation by 2025. Thus, no considerable impact on the yields of crops like wheat, maize, potato, vegetables, forages (alfalfa etc.) fruit trees etc. may be expected by 2025. But, if appropriate measures will not be taken for the rehabilitation, the maintenance and improvement of the conveyance and distribution systems, the insufficient irrigation would be again a more important restrictive factor to the yield crops, for the other time horizons (the period 2050, 2100) (1).

Referring to the other time horizons, 2050 and 2100, the expected impacts on agriculture to be expected are: the reduction of the extent of arable land, due to soil erosion and alteration; the changes in the growth cycles, harvest time and the quality of the agricultural production, especially along the coastal area, owing to an increase in salinity because of the sea level rise and intrusion of salt water into the soil (1). Soil erosion is a huge problem: 60% of the territory is affected (13).

The direct impacts of changes in temperature and precipitation in the future will be mixed. Climate change is forecast to improve yields of wheat and irrigated alfalfa; to reduce harvests of grapes and olives; and to have relatively modest effects on tomatoes, watermelons, maize, soybean, grassland and non-irrigated alfalfa (13).

Livestock

The direct effects of climate change on the livestock sector, particularly beef cattle, chickens and sheep, could be substantial, reducing productivity by up to 25% by 2050. These effects would be felt gradually over time, however, and farmers have confirmed that they have not seen any immediate effects of climate change on livestock production (13).

Changes in temperature, precipitation and water availability will also affect the livestock sector in terms of animal health, nutrition, husbandry and livestock-related infrastructure. Changing climatic conditions will adversely affect
fodder and forage production and rangeland biomass, which could lead to volatile feed prices, increased competition for community grazing lands and increased water scarcity (16).

Vulnerabilities Europe – Climate change not main driver

Socio-economic factors and technological developments

Climate change is only one driver among many that will shape agriculture and rural areas in future decades. Socio-economic factors and technological developments will need to be considered alongside agro-climatic changes to determine future trends in the sector (3).

From research it was concluded that socio-economic assumptions have a much greater effect on the scenario results of future changes in agricultural production and land use then the climate scenarios (4).

The European population is expected to decline by about 8% over the period from 2000 to 2030 (5).

Scenarios on future changes in agriculture largely depend on assumptions about technological development for future agricultural land use in Europe (4). It has been estimated that changes in the productivity of food crops in Europe over the period 1961–1990 were strongest related to technology development and that effects of climate change were relatively small. For the period till 2080 an increase in crop productivity for Europe has been estimated between 25% and 163%, of which between 20% and 143% is due to technological development and 5-20% is due to climate change and CO₂ fertilisation. The contribution of climate change just by itself is approximately a minor 1% (6).

Care should be taken, however, in drawing firm conclusions from the apparent lack of sensitivity of agricultural land use to climate change. At the regional scale there are winners and losers (in terms of yield changes), but these tend to cancel each other out when aggregated to the whole of Europe (4).

Future changes in land use

If technology continues to progress at current rates then the area of agricultural land would need to decline substantially. Such declines will not occur if there is a correspondingly large increase in the demand for agricultural goods, or if political decisions are taken either to reduce crop productivity through policies that encourage extensification or to accept widespread overproduction (4).

Cropland and grassland areas (for the production of food and fibre) may decline by as much as 50% of current areas for some scenarios. Such declines in production areas would result in large parts of Europe becoming surplus to the requirement of food and fibre production (4). Over the shorter term (up to 2030) changes in agricultural land area may be small (7).

Although it is difficult to anticipate how this land would be used in the future, it seems that continued urban expansion, recreational areas (such as for horse riding) and forest land use would all be likely to take up at least some of the surplus. Furthermore, whilst the substitution of food production by energy production was considered in these scenarios, surplus land would provide further opportunities for the cultivation of bioenergy crops (4).

Europe is a major producer of biodiesel, accounting for 90% of the total production worldwide (8). In the Biofuels Progress Report (9), it is estimated that in 2020, the total area of arable land required for biofuel production will be between 7.6 million and 18.3 million hectares, equivalent to approximately 8% and 19% respectively of total arable land in 2005.

The agricultural area of Europe has already diminished by about 13% in the 40 years since 1960 (4).

Benefits of climate changes

Using the time horizon 1990 as a reference by 2025, the impacts to be expected are: the potential citrus growing area would be adapted to the conditions (temperature and precipitation) in higher elevations about 150 m; the potential olive growing area would be adapted to the conditions (temperature and precipitation) in higher elevations about 150 m ; the potential citrus area would enlarge from about 13,6285 ha (in 1990) to 36,2527 ha; the potential olive area, in which the year 1990 was about 474,993 ha, would be 598,090 ha (1).

In 2050 and 2100 the cultivation of early agricultural products in the open air or in greenhouses will benefit from the increase in winter temperatures (1).

Adaptation strategies

Options for the adaptation of the agricultural sector to climate change are (1,16):

Improve weather and seasonal climate forecasts;
Afforestation and the setting up of the barriers to protect the arable land threatened by soil erosion and alteration;
Planning of agricultural production toward xerophilic crops to allow adaptation to the higher winter and summer temperatures and to the scarcity of water in summer;
Biotechnology development of “designer cultivars” to adapt to stresses of climate change (heat, water, pests and diseases);
Developing improved agronomy and risk management techniques associated with changing sowing dates to reduce moisture stress and changing plant densities;
Increased participation of farmers through Water User Associations;
improving drainage, rehabilitating secondary irrigation capacity, optimising fertiliser and water application, providing more climate resilient seed varieties and the know-how to cultivate them effectively for high yields, and encouraging the wider use of hail nets (13).

Options to address increases in water scarcity in agriculture include (10,16):

Within the agriculture sector efficiency gains, in terms of water use per unit area, of up to 50% are thought to possible through switching irrigations technologies from gravity to drip or sprinkler feed systems;
Implementation of practices to conserve moisture (agro-technique measures like conservation tillage to protect soil from wind and water erosion (= the practice of leaving some of the previous season’s crop residues on the soil surface); retain moisture by reducing evaporation and increasing infiltration of precipitation into the soil);
Establish native varieties of forests or grassland, or to allow natural regeneration;
Small scale water conservation measures;
Other options include changing crop types and management practices to one which are less water demanding and better adapted to climate conditions under water scarcity. In the south of Europe, short season cultivars that are planted earlier are more likely to reach maturity in advance of the arrival of extreme high summer temperatures, thus avoiding injury from heat and water stress (11). The rice sector in Spain, Portugal and Greece is particularly vulnerable (12). Water availability is likely to become the major driver of future land use, precipitating land use changes;
Biotechnology;
Removal of sediments from reservoirs to increase water storage capacity;
Modification of existing infrastructure, including pumping stations, water canals, etc…;
Modernization of on-farm distribution systems.

Options for the adaptation of livestock are (16):

Introduction of more heat-tolerant and drought-resistant breeds of cattle and sheep;
Improved housing for livestock;
Improved nutrient management for livestock;
More advanced health-facilities and techniques for the livestock sector.

A lot of information on adaptation strategies is presented on this website on the pages for other southern European countries such as Spain, Greece and Italy.

Farmers in Albania have not adequately adapted to current changes in the climate. In light of this large “adaptation deficit”, many of the climate adaptation measures implemented will be able to improve resilience to more severe climate impacts in the future (13).

National-level adaptation is a high priority. Policy changes and institutional capacity improvements that could be undertaken immediately include expanding extension service capacity; improving the provision of short-term meteorology forecasts for farmers; and encouraging the consolidation of farmland into larger holdings to facilitate more substantial investments in on-farm technology (13).

According to the Work Bank, the following adaptation measures hold the greatest promise for Eastern European countries, independent of climate change scenarios (18):

Technology and management: Conservation tillage for maintaining moisture levels; reducing fossil fuel use from field operations, and reducing CO2 emissions from the soil; use of organic matter to protect field surfaces and help preserve moisture; diversification of crops to reduce vulnerability; adoption of drought‐, flood‐, heat‐, and pest resistant cultivars; modern planting and crop‐rotation practices; use of physical barriers to protect plants and soils from erosion and storm damage; integrated pest management (IPM), in conjunction with similarly knowledge‐based weed control strategies; capacity for knowledge based farming; improved grass and legume varieties for livestock; modern fire management techniques for forests.
Institutional change: Support for institutions offers countries win‐win opportunities for reducing vulnerability to climate risk and promoting development. Key institutions include: hydromet centers, advisory services, irrigation directorates, agricultural research services, veterinary institutions, producer associations, water‐user associations, agro processing facilities, and financial institutions.
Policy: Non‐distorting pricing for water and commodities; financial incentives to adopt technological innovations; access to modern inputs; reformed farm subsidies; risk insurance; tax incentives for private investments; modern land markets; and social safety nets.

Weather forecasts

The status of most weather services among Eastern European countries has deteriorated considerably in the last two decades, mainly as a consequence of persistent under‐financing during the arduous transition that followed the end of central planning and the break‐up of the Soviet Union. … The perils of a weakening forecast capacity have become evident in Russia’s system, where the share of hazardous weather phenomena that were not picked up and forecast increased from 6% at the beginning of 1990s to 23% only ten years later. … Increased accuracy in forecasting would assist in the timing of fertilizer application and pest and disease control, avoiding over‐application that raises input costs and exacerbates environmental damage. There is abundant evidence that farmers in Tajikistan, Montenegro, Uzbekistan, and Albania would benefit significantly from improved monitoring and forecasting. Forecasts also would enable mitigation of frost damage, which is a serious problem for agriculture in Ukraine, Turkmenistan, Montenegro, Moldova, Armenia, Macedonia, Kazakhstan, and Bosnia, among others. Tools to mitigate the effects of sudden freezes are being developed globally, but cost‐effective application depends on accurate forecasting (18).

References

The references below are cited in full in a separate map ‘References’. Please click here if you are looking for the full references for Albania.

Republic of Albania, Ministry of Environment (2002)
EEA (2006), in: EEA, JRC and WHO (2008)
EEA, JRC and WHO (2008)
Rounsevell et al. (2005)
UN (2004), in: Alcamo et al. (2007)
Ewert et al. (2005), in: Alcamo et al. (2007)
Van Meijl et al. (2006), in: Alcamo et al. (2007)
JNCC (2007), in: Anderson (ed.) (2007)
European Commission (2006), in: Anderson (ed.) (2007)
Anderson et al. (2007)
Maracchi et al. (2005), in: Anderson (ed.) (2007)
Agra Europe (2007), in: Anderson (ed.) (2007)
Diku (2011)
World Bank (2009), in World Bank (2011)
Shundi (2003), in World Bank (2011)
World Bank (2011)
Iglesias et al. (2007), in World Bank (2011)
World Bank Group (2009)

September 1, 2015

by AEA

Climate change Albania

The climate of Albania

Albania has a typically Mediterranean climate characterised by mild winters with abundant precipitation and hot, dry summers. The annual mean air temperature varies widely over the territory from 7°C over the highest zones up to 15°C in the coastal zone. In the south west, temperatures reach up to 16°C. In the lowland, an almost stable distribution of annual mean temperature (between 12 and 14°C) can be observed. The lowest recorded temperature was -25.8°C and the highest 43.9°C (2).

Total mean annual precipitation over Albania is about 1,485 mm per year. The southeast part of the country receives smaller amounts of precipitation (an annual value of up to 600 mm). The highest precipitation total is recorded in the Albanian Alps, where values reach as much as 2,800 to 3,000 mm per year. Another area with abundant rainfall is the mountainous southwest zone, where total precipitation is up to 2,200 mm. Precipitation levels follow a clear annual pattern, with the maximum in winter and the minimum in summer (2).

Air temperature changes until now

In the eastern Mediterranean, the intensity, length and number of heat waves have increased by a factor of six to eight since the 1960s (7).

Precipitation changes until now

Albania belongs to the subtropical Mediterranean climate. It is characterized by mild winters with abundant precipitation and hot, dry summers. The mean annual precipitation total over Albania is about 1,485 mm/year. The highest precipitation total (70%) is recorded during the cold months (October – March). The richest month in precipitation over the whole territory is November, while the poorest are July and August. The number of rainy days (>1.0 mm) per year varies from 80-120 days/year (1).

The southeast part of country receives the smaller amount of precipitation (annual value reach up to 600 mm/year), followed by the Myzeqeja field, that receives about 1,000 mm/year. The highest precipitation total is recorded in the Albanian Alps, whereas the values reach up to 2,800-3,000 mm/year. Another center with abundant rainfall is also the mountainous southwest zone, with a precipitation total up to 2,200 mm/year (1).

Generally, the annual precipitation total shows a slight decreasing trend, mainly due to less precipitation during winter and spring. An exception from this general trend makes autumn, where coastal stations (Shkodra and Vlora) indicates positive trend of precipitation. While Tirana, Korça and Kukesi stations display a very light decreasing trend (1).

Air temperature changes in the 21st century

The climate change scenarios for Albania project an annual increase in temperature up to 1°C, 1.8°C, 3.6°C respectively by 2025, 2050 and 2100 (1). The seasonal temperature and precipitation changes suggest changes towards milder winters, warmer springs, drier autumns, drier and hotter summers. The projected ranges of temperature increase for all seasons are (3):

Season	Increase 2025	Increase 2050	Increase 2100
Annual	0.8 – 1.1°C	1.7 – 2.3°C	2.9 – 5.3°C
Winter	0.7 – 0.9°C	1.5 – 1.9°C	2.4 – 4.5°C
Spring	0.7 – 0.9°C	1.4 – 1.8°C	2.3 – 4.2°C
Summer	1.2 – 1.5°C	2.4 – 3.1°C	4.0 – 7.3°C
Autumn	0.8 – 1.1°C	1.7 – 2.2°C	2.9 – 5.2°C

Likely changes in other climatic parameters are (3):

a higher increase of daily minimum temperatures than maximum temperatures;
a decrease in the number of frost days (with temperatures of ≤-5°C) in high altitudes of four to five days, nine days and 15 days by 2025, 2050 and 2100 respectively;
an increase in the frequency and intensity of heat waves. The number of days with a temperature of ≥35°C is likely to rise by one to two days by 2025, and by three to four days by 2050 compared to the 1951 to 2000 average. By 2100, the expected increase is between five and six days in mountainous areas and up to eight days in lowland areas;

Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME)

For the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East an analysis was carried out of long-term meteorological datasets (period 1901-2006) along with regional climate model projections for the 21^st century (SRES scenario A1B) (4). The results suggest a continual, gradual and relatively strong warming of the area of about 1-3°C in the near-future (2010–2039), to 3–5°C in the mid-century period (2040–2069) and 3.5–7°C by the end of the century (2070–2099). Daytime maximum temperatures appear to increase most rapidly in the northern part of the region, i.e. the Balkan Peninsula and Turkey. Maximum day time temperature increases more strongly than mean night time minimum temperature (8).

Extremely high summer temperatures are projected to become the norm by 2070–2099; the coolest summers at the end-of-century may be warmer than the hottest ones in the recent past. As an example, the hottest summer on record in Athens in 2007 would be among the 5% coolest ones by the end of the century (4,8). The relatively strong upward trend in the northern parts of the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East indicates a continuation of the increasing intensity and duration of heat waves observed in this region since 1960 (5). According to regional climate model results based on the IPCC SRES scenarios A1B, A2 and B2, the number of heat wave days, here defined as days with maximum temperatures exceeding the local 90th percentile of the reference period (1961–1990), typically increases by a factor of 4–10 by the middle and 7–15 by the end of the century, with the strongest increases in the Middle East (8).

Current and future daytime mean temperature trends in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East typically vary from 0.28° to 0.46°C per decade. The largest increases appear in some continental locations such as Belgrade, Sofia, Ankara, Baghdad and Riyadh with trends in excess of 0.4°C/decade. The same analysis was performed for daytime maximum and night-time minimum temperature; for daytime maximum temperature the largest upward trends are calculated for Belgrade, Sofia, Tirana and Ankara with 0.48°, 0.46°, 0.45° and 0.44°C per decade, respectively. For night-time minimum temperature, large positive trends exceeding 0.40°C/decade are derived for Belgrade, Riyadh, Baghdad, Athens, Sofia and Ankara (4,8).

A1B scenario results suggest that by the end of the century, the frequency of very hot days (maximum day time temperature >35°C) may increase up to 1–2 weeks per year in mountainous parts of the northern EMME and by about a month in much of the rest of the region. The frequency of ‘‘tropical’’ nights (mean night time minimum temperature > 25°C) also increases strongly, by nearly a month per year in the Balkans and coastal areas, and more than two months in the Gulf region, exacerbating the daytime heat stress. By the end of the century in most cities, the coolest summers may be warmer than the hottest ones today (8).

Precipitation changes in the 21st century

The climate change scenarios for Albania project an annual decrease in precipitation up to -3.8%, -6.1%, -12.5% respectively by 2025, 2050 and 2100 (1). The seasonal temperature and precipitation changes suggest changes towards milder winters, warmer springs, drier autumns, drier and hotter summers. The projected ranges of changes in precipitation for all seasons are (3):

Season	Change 2025	Change 2050	Change 2100
Annual	-3.4 to -2.6%	-6.9 to -5.3%	-16.2 to -8.8%
Winter	-1.8 to -1.3%	-3.6 to -2.8%	-8.4 to -4.6%
Spring	-1.2 to -0.9%	-2.5 to -1.9%	-5.8 to -3.2%
Summer	-11.5 to -8.7%	-23.2 to -17.8%	-54.1 to -29.5%
Autumn	-3.0 to -2.3%	-6.1 to -4.7%	-14.2 to -7.7%

By 2050, the lowest value of annual precipitation total (about 570 mm) is expected to be registered in the southeast of the country, followed by Myzeqeja zone located in the west, with 950 mm, the southwest area with 2,100 mm. The highest value, about 2,650-2,850 mm, is expected to be registered again over the Alpine zones. The same distribution is likely expected by 2100 (1).

Likely changes in other climatic parameters are (3):

an increase of droughts (number and duration) during the summers due to higher temperatures and potential evaporation that is not balanced by precipitation;
in winter more precipitation in the form of rain rather than snow;
an increase in episodes of intensive rain. The number of days with heavy precipitation (24 hours maximum) compared to the 1951 to 2000 average is likely to increase by one to two days by 2025, by two to three days by 2050, and by three to five days by 2100.

Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East

From the analysis of long-term meteorological datasets (period 1901-2006) along with regional climate model projections for the 21^st century (SRES scenario A1B) a decline of annual precipitation is projected of 5–25% in 2040–2069 and 5–30% in 2070–2099 relative to the reference period 1961–1990 (4,8). The decreases will be particularly large (>15%) in Cyprus, Greece, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, the Palestine territories and Syria. As a result of precipitation decrease, and also due to population growth rates, the per capita available internal water resources may decline strongly, for example by 50% or more by mid-century in Cyprus (9).

In the Balkans, Turkey, Cyprus, Lebanon and Israel, the number of rainy days may decrease, e.g. by 5–15 days at mid-century and by 10–20 days per year at the end-of-century (4). This appears to be a continuation of a trend observed in Greece since about 1960 (6).

The intensity of precipitation (maximum amount of rain per day) is expected to decrease except over the northern Balkans and the Caucasus (4).

References

The references below are cited in full in a separate map ‘References’. Please click here if you are looking for the full references for Albania.

Republic of Albania, Ministry of Environment (2002)
Diku (2011)
Republic of Albania, Ministry of Environment (2009), in: Diku (2011)
Lelieveld et al. (2012)
Kuglitsch et al. (2010), in: Lelieveld et al. (2012)
Nastos and Zerefos 2009, in: Lelieveld et al. (2012)
Kuglitsch et al. (2010), in: Coumou and Rahmstorf (2012)
Lelieveld et al. (2013)
Chenoweth et al. (2011), in: Lelieveld et al. (2013)