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March 5, 2013

by AEA

The reduction of the GHG emission based on the utilisation of RES

The climate change represents a global problem. Actually, all the countries contribute in different scales to the green house gas (GHG) emitting and climate changes. As such, the climate changes influence in the temperatures increase, less raining and a higher sea level. Less raining leads to an increase of dryness, to less energy produced from hydro power plants and as a result it impacts in the economic development of each country. These phases highly harm the efforts for poverty reduction and the achievement of Millennium Development Goals.

Fossil fuel impact to human health and environment

The usage of fossil fuels as: petroleum, oil, natural gas has an enormous influence in the human health and the natural equilibrium. With regard to the human health, the fossil fuel high consumption leads to cancer or other chronic breath diseases, while its impact in environment is mainly related to the global warming and the degradation of earth, water sources and air pollution.

The organic stuff burning for the production of the electric energy is the main source of the carbon dioxide emitting (CO2), which is the major contributor to the global warming and climate change issue. The scientists foresee that our planet will constantly be warmer if the concentration levels of the carbon dioxide will be increasing. Higher temperatures will influence to the extreme weather changes and in devastated earth. The burn of the fossil fuel for the production of the electrical energy is the main cause of the air pollution. This process generates a lot of polluters as nitrogen oxides NO_x, sulphur oxides SO_x, hydrocarbons _HxCy, dust, smog, and other materials in suspension. These polluters can influence in serious problems to asthma, lung irritation, bronchitis, pneumonia, reduction of breath organ resistance on infections and preliminary death.

Nitrogen oxides present themselves in the form of yellow to brown clouds in the horizon of many cities. They can lead to lung irritation, cause bronchitis and pneumonia as well as reduce the resistance toward breath infections. The transport sector is responsible for a considerable amount of emitting of NO_x and the TPP are responsible for the major part of NO_x emitting.

The sulphur oxides are the results of sulphur oxidation in the fuel. The equipment that use the coal for the production of the electric energy, produce around two third of the emitting of SO_x. These gases are combined with the water steams that are in the form of sulphur and nitric acids, which become part of the rain and snow. Acid rain damages the whole live world in the rivers, lakes, minimizes the agriculture production and damages the buildings.

The hydro-carbons are major part of the polluters. They are compounded of hundreds of specific combinations, which contain carbon and hydrogen. The simplest hydrocarbon is methane (CH4), which does not enter easily into reaction with NO_x to form smog, but the other part of the hydrocarbons do so. The hydrocarbons are emitted from human sources such as: emitting from vehicles, the steam of gas-oil and the oil refining.

It is very important, as well, to have a figure out of how the energy is produced and how it is used. In order to use in the future a kind of energy that does not lead to problems of the global warming, it is needed to see towards the renewable energy sources as: sun, wind, hydro-energy, biomass and geothermic. These sources do not contain and do not emit CO2 or other polluters during their usage. They do not also produce air polluters and they are never finished. Using the fuel from wood or other plants (energy and biomass) which free CO2, they do not contribute in the global warming. During their growing they consume the carbon, creating therefore a closed cycle.

Emission reduction of RES use

Table 8 The emitting unit coefficients

The foreseen energy for each RES multiplied to these coefficients, give the emitting that can be avoided using the RES according to the potentials described above. Because the electrical energy is not only supplied from fossil fuel, the emitting part of the TPP energy for the 20 years is considered. This coefficient for the study period is 0,3 which means that the electric energy system in Albania will be supplied 30% from the TPP in the next 20 years.

Having the assessment done for the amount of energy that will be provided during the period 2005-2025 from the use of renewable energies, we can calculate the emissions of CO2 equivalent, SOx, NOx, in case this energy would be supplied from TPP burning diesel.

Table 9 Emission reduction from the use of RES

Based on the forecast of the renewable energy penetration, it is calculated the quantity of GHG (Green House Gases) that can be avoided as shown in the following graphics.

Figure 28 GHG emitting avoided from RES usage

Kyoto Protocol and Clean Development Mechanisms Projects

The Protocol of Kyoto is established in December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan. It includes legal obligations for 40 industrialized countries, comprising 11 countries of Central and Eastern Europe and aims in the reduction of the green house gas of 5 % lower than in 1990, as an average for the first obligation period: 2008-2012. The Protocol of Kyoto includes the cooperation mechanisms compiled to enable the industrialized countries (Parties of Annex I) in order to reduce the achievement costs through the reduction of the emitting of GHG in other countries, where the cost is lower than own countries. These mechanisms tent to reduce the cost and take measures against the climate change phenomena.

CDM is the only flexible mechanism of Kyoto Protocol that includes countries that are not counted in Annex I of Protocol where Albania participates. CDM is a mechanism defined from the Protocol of Kyoto related to the projects implementing components that consist of reduction of GHG or their sequestration. This mechanism gives to the countries and private companies the chance to reduce the emitting worldwide – on the lowest cost – and they can be further counted in credits assessed from organs and specialized entities and accredited according to their objectives.

Through the emitting reducing projects, the mechanism can stimulate investments and ensure the main source for a cleaner development of the economy all around the world. CDM, in particular, aims to assist the countries in development towards the sustainable development and stimulation of the pro-environment projects from businesses and government of the industrialized countries.

CDM can be implemented in the following sectors/categories:

The improvement of the energy efficiency to the consumer;
The improvement of the energy efficiency in the supply system;
The renewable energy sources;
The change of fossil fuel;
Agriculture (the reduced discharge of CH4 and N2O);
The industrial processes (CO2 from cement etc., HFCs, PFCs, SF6);
Sink projects (only forest and deforest)

In order to participate in a CDM, considerable number of criteria has been set for the countries to implement this kind of project. All the participatory parties need to meet the three requirements, as following:

Voluntary participation in CDM,
The establishment of a National Authority for CDM, and
The ratification of Kyoto Protocol.

Furthermore, the industrialized countries need to meet other participation requirements, such as:

The respecting of Article 3 of Kyoto Protocol related to the definite amount of discharges,
The establishment of national system of the GHG assessment,
The establishment of the national register of the GHG discharge,
The development of an annual inventory, and
The establishment of an accounting system for the sell and purchase of the reduced discharge.

In order to be eligible, a CDM project has to:

Be implemented in accordance with the national policies and relevant strategies of the project hosting country and in a broader context with the policies for a sustainable development.
Be “complimentary” which implies the reduction of the discharge being present despite of the project implementation.

There is a lot of financial profiting from the organization implementing CDM project. Initially the sell of CER known as “carbon mortgage” generates additional project incomes. Secondly, the CDM project can be a solution for the diversification and reduction of investment risk in this project. The implementation of CDM project can be part of the strategy for the company increase in the hosting or investing country, which, anyway, improves the image of the company in the framework of the global competition.

The scheme presented below shows the cycle in which the CDM project goes through. According to this scheme, each project has the following basic phases: (1) the project formulation, (2) national approval, (3) approval and registration, (4) project funding, (5) monitoring, (6) verification/certification and (7) issuing of CER. The first four phases are prior to the project implementation, while the last three are during the whole project duration: the Figure 29 gives information related to the responsible institution for each project phase, starting with the National Authority, and later with the Executive Board and Operational Entities which are diverse as far as the assessment or verification is concerned.

Conclusions

As a conclusion of the analyses on RES potentials in Albania, it results that it belongs to the group of countries of considerable potentials in using these kind of sources.

The average annual quantity of rain in the country territory is approximately 1400 mm, reflected in a dense hydrographic system with high potentials for the SHPP constructions.

The amount of solar energy provided by solar radiation is high, as well. This amount can be up to 1600 kWh/m² annually in the Western Lowland. The solar days vary from the average of 240 – 260 days to 280 – 300 days annually in the South-West.

The wind annual average speed in the majority of the country is up to 3 m/s. The areas of high potentials for further detailed studies on wind as a renewable energy source are: Alps of Albania, Lezhë – Mamurras, the central mountanous area, the coastal hilly area of Adriatic sea, the hilly and mountanous area of Jonian sea and the highlands of Beratit-Corovodës-Tepelenë-Ballsh area.

The most profitable spot (taking into consideration the constuction infrastructure) for pilot projects on wind and solar sources are: the entrance of Lezhe, the hills of Kryevidh (near Spille beach), Xarre (south of Saranda), the area between Berat and Këlcyrë.

Albania represents a country of real geothermy energy of low enthalpy, still unused. It could contribute, though, to a balance of the country energy system. The building heating and cooling of buildings, green houses and swimming-pools through the modern and profitable system: cliffs heating sources – wells – vertical heating exchange – geothermic pumps should be the main directions of country geothermic energy use. Llixha of Elbasan, Peshkopi, Kozani-8 and Ishmi – 1/b wells result to be the most attractive areas in using this kind of RES.

Actually, the fire woods for heating and cooking are the only biomass components used. Given the old technology in use, the coverting yield of this RES is quite low, 35-40%.

Renewable energy sources still make an unacceptably modest contribution to the country energy balance as compared to the available technical potential. In fact a quantity of 800 kilo ton oil equivalent can be generated from the renewable energy sources until 2025. This quantity is 58 % of the total energy demand for the three main sectors: household, service, and agriculture. It can also be equivalent with 30% of the energy import for the same period.

Albania dependence on energy imports is already 55% and is expected to increase over the coming years if no action is taken, reaching 70% by 2025

From penetration of RET in our market it will be possible the production of around 800 ktoe green energy and at the same time the considerable reduction amount of GHG.

Recommendations

First and foremost, without a coherent and transparent strategy and an ambitious overall objective for RET penetration; these sources of energy will not make major inroads into the country energy balance. Technological progress by itself can not break down the several nontechnical barriers which hamper the penetration of renewable energy technologies in the energy markets. Without a clear and comprehensive strategy accompanied by legislative measures, their development will be retarded. A long-term stable framework for the development of renewable sources of energy, covering political, legislative, administrative, economic and marketing aspects is in fact the top priority for the economic operators involved in their development.

According to the preliminary financial analyses of cost-benefit for RET, it results that the technologies needed to be promoted in the future through the implementation of respective projects based on a full financial profiting analyses and full analyses of environment impact are: SHPP used for the electricity, solar panel for water heating in household and service sectors, the efficient heaters in the third area (division according to grade-days warm), where the heating needs are to a considerable level.

It is considered as profitable the implementation of a study project on the wind speed indicators for the premising areas according to this study. It is, as well, recommended to ensure the progress of further studies in identifying the sectors/areas/regions/consumers, where the implementation of relevant projects on geothermic, urban waste and photovoltaic plants results profitable.

A significant group that can be used for energy profit is related to the extensive richness of bushes (which can be undoubfully as a renewable energy source as they keep on growing again).

Introduction of a financial support scheme for renewable energy is crucial for their development. The support scheme should overcome the current additional costs for energy production from renewable energy sources compared to fossil fuels.

The dissemination in a highly wider range of the RES potentials through the fiche-projects are crucial for attract (foreign) investors in renewable energy projects, for example by introducing interested parties in the resources, or by facilitating them under the Kyoto framework, i.e. support CDM projects. The CDM mechanism is potentially especially interesting as a financing mechanism to support investment decisions for biomass projects. Establishment of Renewable Energy Development Centre is fundamental.

March 5, 2013

by AEA

Evaluation of the energy/thermal unit cost for each RET

The main elements of the pre-feasibility analyses of a certain plant are the initial investments, operations and usage costs, fuel costs, produced electric energy, interest norms, the life duration of the plant and some other indicators. LDC (Leveled Discount Cost) calculated with the following formula will be used to realise the cost-benefit analyses enabling the cost calculation as unit of electrical and thermal energy generation is:

In order to realise the preliminary analyses of the benefit-cost analyses, basically for each RES three different power rates plants (250 kW, 1000 kW and 3000 kW respectively) have been analysed. They supply thermal/electrical power for the family consumers, hotelier sector for the buildings in service sector as well as agriculture sector. The basic parameters of this analyses are in the following table:

Figure 27 Unit cost for each technology and each capacity [cent/kWh]

The figure analyses shows that the long term marginal cost of electrical/thermal energy is in high values for two technologies: photovoltaic and urban waste plants. The second group of the low cost plants consists of: wind and geothermic energy source. The third group is compounded by the classical plants with comparable costs such as: SHPP (which have a lower cost), the co-generated plants that realise the production of electrical energy, the efficient heater plants working with biomass (fire wood) and solar panel plants that realise the production of the thermal energy.

February 20, 2013

by AEA

SOUTH-EAST EUROPEAN ECO FORUM 29-31 May 2013, Sofia, Bulgaria

From 29^th to 31^st May 2013 in Sofia (Bulgaria), the SEE Solar Exhibition and Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Congress and Exhibition will bring together top industry professionals. The Forum & Exhibition are a platform for market exploration of the Region, up-to-date technologies exposure and hot topics’ discussions. The business, state authority and the general public in South-East Europe are increasingly aware of the clean technologies benefits and during the last years the countries are making a significant progress in the implementation of sustainable practices and adopting the best European regulations.

Some trends will drive the market of the green technologies in the Region and will open new attractive niches. The experts forecast a boom of installation of small integrated photovoltaic roof -, window- and façade- systems in the next years. According to the Energy Efficiency Directive all new buildings must be nearly Zero Energy (nZEB) from 2021.

The 2013 SEE Forum & Exhibition at a Glance:

Well-known companies are among the exhibitors- Sputnik Engineering (Solarmax), Krannich Solar, Global Hydro Energy, Costruzioni Nazzareno, Heliocentris Energiesysteme, Polytechnik, etc.
Exhibition / Forum scope: solar-, wind-, hydro- and bio energy, energy storage, waste-to-energy, energy efficiency, etc.
Austrian and Italian Pavilions
Speaker lineup – professionals from the European Commission – DG Energy, ECEEE, EREF, EuroACE, BPIE, etc.
The program will be diversified with many parallel events: Global Methane Initiative (GMI) on Landfill Gas Utilization, organized by the U.S. Environmental Agency; 2^nd Best Eco-Municipality Competition

Brochure 2013 Post Event Report 2012

Organizer: www.viaexpo.com T +359 32 512 905 | E office@viaexpo.com | W www.viaexpo.com

February 20, 2013

by AEA

Via Expo – Your Business Development Partner

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February 19, 2013

by AEA

The forecast of the RES percentage in the overall fuel mix in Albania

Figure 24 Energy demand for household, service and agricultural sector in the total energy
demand foreseen

One of the main goals of this study is to assess the energy amount that can be provided by the renewable energy. We stick on this study on the renewable energy technologies that can be applied in the household, service and agricultural sector. Taking into consideration the above goal the amount of energy provided by the renewable energy in the before mention sectors is analysed below. The figure shows the total energy demand foreseen for the household, service and agriculture sectors.

As it is shown in the figure the total energy demand in the household, service and agriculture sector will cover over 50% of the total energy demand. The analyses will be focused exactly in this energy demand, which can be provided from the renewable energy.

Contribution of each RET on the energy demand projection

The study of E. Hido informs that the solar water heating systems (SWHS) have generated 3.8 ktoe (44,2 GWh) until 2005. Meanwhile, according to the forecast done until 2025, it is supposed that the contribution from the systems will go up to 100 ktoe (1163 GWh). Therefore, in 2025 the generated energy from SWHS will be 26 times more than in 2005 (Hido 2006). The above data on the penetration of SWHS have been based on the penetration stage of the solar energy in the two sectors: household and service. The penetration of the solar energy in the household sector has been calculated in an amount of 16% in the whole country (in 2025). More specifically, the country is divided in three areas according to the heating degree days. Thus, the first area had a penetration of 21%, the second one 15% and the third area of 12%. The penetration of the solar energy in the service sector has been assessed in 15% in the public services and 27 % in the private ones.

According to the study of D. Profka, the photovoltaic centrals that produce electricity from the solar energy PVPP have not penetrated so far, except for a pilot project. Actually, there have been constructed around 5 kW. Meanwhile the forecast until 2025 implies that the PVPP (need of the isolated systems like the costal lighthouses and different the antennas for the mobile phone, radio and televisions) will contribute with a production of 4.3 ktoe (50 GWh). Thus, in 2025 the energy produced from PVPP will be 4.3 times more than in year 2005 (Profka 2006).

As a conclusion, the system that use solar energy can cover 7,8% of the total energy demand of the three sectors together (household, service and agriculture) or 4,12% of the import needs in 2025 in case of applying the mentioned scenario.

According to the analyses from S. Xhelepi, it concludes that until 2006 the SHPP have generated 1,7 ktoe around 20 GWh. Meanwhile, the optimistic forecasts imply that these plants will generate around 81,7 ktoe (950 GWh) in 2025, which means that the energy produced will be 48 times more than in 2005. As a conclusion, SHPP can cover up to 6,1 % of the energy demand in the three sectors considered or 3,23% of the import needs in 2025 (Xhelepi 2006).

According to the study of A.Hizmo, the contribution of biomass until 2005 has been 285 ktoe (3314 GWh). This is mainly dedicated to the use of fire woods, the only actual selection being used. Furthermore, he foresees that the plants using this energy will contribute by generating around 400 ktoe (4650 GWh) in year 2025, or 1,6 times more than in year 2005 (Hizmo 2006).

Contribution of biomass is mainly based on more efficient usage of the fire woods. Actually, the average yield of wood heaters is 35-40% and it is foreseen that the heaters of 75-85% yield will penetrate in 2025. The penetration value of the fire woods is calculated based on the annual production of the forests and the sector needs of the household, service, and agriculture demand. This process will have a double profit: it will enable the sustainable usage of the forests and it will considerably decrease the local pollution (SO2, CO). It has been supposed that the penetration of biomass will be increased by using the agriculture biomass (animal breeding, the so-called energy plants) in energy production of green houses and the especially in the energy production (as a secondary product) as a result of the urban waste treatment. The biomass can cover up to 29.8% of the energy demand in the three sectors considered together or 15,82% of the import needs in 2025.

According to the study of P. Mitrushi, it results that the wind energy contribution has not existed until 2005. There have been some attempts to install pilot wind turbines. Nevertheless, the actual contribute of this energy source is zero. It has been foreseen that the penetration of these plants (WPP) will generate energy up to 43 toe (500 GWh) until 2025. P. Mitrushi assumes in his study a concept-idea of the construction of Wind Electro Centrals in the Adriatic Costal area. The project looks more feasible in this area than in other ones because of the great energeticecologic-economic impact. As a conclusion we can say that WPP can cover up to 3,2% of the energy needs in the three sectors considered together or 1,7% of the import needs for year 2025 (Mitrushi 2006).

A Frasheri and M. Mico presents in their studies that the contribution of geothermic energy has not existed until 2005. It is expected that this energy source will cover 10 ktoe (116,3 GWh). It is concluded that, the geothermic plants can cover up to 0,7% of the energy demand in the three sectors or 0,4% of the import needs for year 2025 (Frasheri 2006).

The energy supply improvement, the reduction of electric and thermo energy import, the promotion of the new technologies as, DH & CHP (District Heating & Combined Heat and Power) in the service and residential sector are the main objectives of B. Islami’s study.

A calculation of the thermo energy provided by SCHP has been done by taking into consideration its penetration of 6% in household sector and 10% in the service sector until 2025. According to this study, the energy produced by SCHP will be 144 ktoe (1675 GWh) in 2025. Therefore, the SCHP can cover up to 10,7% of the energy demand of the three sectors or 5,7% of the import needs in 2025 (Islami 2006).

Figure 25 Energy produced by the penetration of the renewable energy schemes and contribution
on energy demand for household, service and agriculture sectors.

Figure 26 The coverage of the imported energy demand through the renewable energy

February 19, 2013

by AEA

Projection of energy supply and demand in Albania

The energy sector is one of the most important ones in the country economy. The supply of the energy according to the sectors is based on hydro-energy, being considered as the primary energy source up to the fossil fuels, wood etc. The history of the traditional sources can be carefully considered for a further analyses and forecast of the energy demand. This would help to an effective intervention and better control of the increasing trend in energy demand as well as to decrease the existing energy dependence. This analyses is important to assess the energy needs afforded by RES, which have never been considered in the energy analyses.

Figure 18 The consume of energy sources divided by sector

Taking into consideration the energy consume in different sectors, it can be easily noticed that this consume has huge ups and downs during the years 1990-2004, as shown in the figure above. As the country was oriented towards the heavy industry before 1990, the energy consume was considerably higher than the first years of transition. During the years 1995-2000 the energy consume has decreased up to 1/3 of the consume level of 1990. It can be easily concluded that there are high differences which call for future special attention on the energy demand.

Extracting and use of the energy sources in Albania

The oil sources in Albania are distributed in the West and Southwest. They derivate mainly from the two structures, the sand rocks and lime stones. The geologic slack of oil is assessed of 260 million m³, 54 million m³ out of which are accessible. The geological slacks of oil in the sea are assessed to be up to 200 milion m³, 50 milion m³ out of which can be taken out¹. The usage of oil in Albania has started since 1918, whereas the peak was in 1975. Eversince the usage of oil has always been decreasing, and from 1990s on it experienced a continous consume increase. This contradiction between the usage and consume has led to a dependence on the fossil fuel contries since years 90s. The difference between the usage and the consume has been increasing as a result of the transport development sector. Until 1989 Albania has been an exporter of oil products. Actually, imported oil and its products contribute approximately of 63% of primar energy sources.

Figure 19 The production, consume & self sufficiency of oil supply

The oil refining has been done mainly through four refineries available in Cerrik, Fier, Kucove and Ballsh. After the construction of the refineries in Ballsh, the other three refineries did not function in full capacity. The oil fields result with a high percentage of sulphur (4% – 8%) and high gravity (8 – 35 API). The technologies used in the mentioned refineries are quite old and give serious problems uncontrollable pollution. Therefore new investments are needed for further usage of them. A general technical-economic analysis would assess this kind of investment versus the investment on the renewable energy.

Coal is one of the main sources in country and it is concentrated in four main areas (see Annex C). The systems of coal enrichment in Valias, Memaliaj and Maliq are already out of function. The coal has mainly been used as a source for central heating and electrical energy production from TPP (co-generative), that are built near the coal mines. In general, the country coal has resulted to a high percentage of sulphur (around 4%) and a high percentage of ash and wetness. Therefore the coal results to a low calorific value with high emissions of SO2. The mine characteristic is that it is located in high depths (over 200 m) and in strata of relatively small amounts (70 – 100cm). As a result the country coal has a higher cost than the imported coal. This is one of the reasons that the use of the coal had a drastic decrease in the last years.

The production and the natural gas consume has started since 1963 and gradually have been discovered other gas fields such as: Divjakë, Frrakull, Ballaj-Kryevidh, Durrës, Povelçë, and Panaja–Delvinë. Around 500 wells have been constructed until the end of 1995; out of which approximately 3.04 billion m³ of natural gas have been taken out. Actually, the gas fields are in their final phase. The numbers of the wells are decreased to 30 and the daily collections can be up to 300-1500 m³N/day. The gas slacks have a decrease since 1995, but the peak was in 1990 as a result of identification lack of new sources and investments in the existing fields.

A very important source, which has given a considerable contribution to the energy balance of the country, is biomass and more specifically the woods. The usage of woods has also been decreased in the last years. During 1990 the fire woods contributed with 727.7 ktoe (or 24.6% of the total) falling until 271.4 ktoe in 2004 (12.5% of the total). This decrease has influenced positively in the minimization of the wood cuts, and simultaneously has had a negative impact since more electrical energy has been used, especially in the residential sector.

According to the data from the General Directorate of Forests, the total slack of the fire wood goes up to 14,3 Mtoe. The usage of fire wood, coal and natural gas in years and the percentages compared to the total of energy sources is given below.

Figure 20 The production and self sufficiency of primary energy sources for the period 1990 – 2004

The energy provided by the HPP and TPP

Figure 21 The production of electricity from TPP and HPP for the period 1985 – 2004

Albania has a high potential of hydro-energy, 35% out of which is used so far. The installed capacity up to now is 1464,5 MW. The average production of HPP in Albania is about 4362 GWh/year. The total slacks of hydro-energy are up to 3000 MW and the annual potential can be up to 10 TWh (Xhelepi 2006). A great importance is given recently to the use of the rivers in the central and the southern part of Albania, in order to have a geographical hydro-energy balance. 8 TPP have been installed in different time periods and capacities. The main common quality is the co-generation. Actually, all the TPP are out of function, except from Fier one, which works on a super minimal capacity. More details and technical characteristics of existing HPP and TPP and those that are planned to be constructed are given on Annex B.

The provision of the energy demand divided by sectors

The generating capacity is insufficient to face the today demand of 6.60 TWh/year (year 2006). The technical production has an average of 10-12 million kWh/day and the import can go to 8-10 million kWh/day. Therefore a total maximal supply of 18-22 million kWh/day can be provided. The required consume in a normal winter day is 25-27 million kWh. As a result, the electroenergy system is sufficient for 70-80% of the total energy demand during the winter peak, leading to power cuts. According to the NSE, this situation has a resulted to a trade defficit of 25.6 Milion USD in 1990. In 2004 imports go up to 310 million USD/year. To have a clear view, the trade deficit of 2004 is around 1272 Milion USD/year. 25% of this deficit consists of energitic comodities (sub-products of oil and electric energy).

The following forecast of the energy demand for the period 2005-2025 is based on the NSE. The energy demand forecast for each sector of economy has been done according to the same scenarios and trends of NSE.

Figure 22 The provision of energy demands divided by sectors

Figure 23 The supply of primary energy sources made-in country and imported

Albania dependence on energy imports is already 55% and is expected to increase over the coming years up to 70% by 2025 in case of no intervention (see figure 16). The following figure presents the coverage of the foreseen energy demand from the country energy sources and import for the coming 20 years.

Much attention will increase therefore the focus on security of supply. In this framework, one of the main challenges in the Albanian energy sector is the diversification of the energy sources and the self-sufficiency of energy demand with the country sources, reducing the import dependence. Renewable energies as indigenous sources of energy will have an important role to play in reducing the level of energy imports with positive implications for balance of trade and security of supply.