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May 5, 2011
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Official scenarios

For long-term energy scenarios, there are two established authorities. The European Commission has been publishing its long-term energy scenarios since the 1990s. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has published its World Energy Outlook which has a Reference Scenario and recently, Alternative Scenario. EWEA provides wind energy data for Europe.

To date, all targets and future projections for wind energy set by the European Commission, by IEA and by EWEA have been surpassed.

European targets – background

In 1997 the European Commission White Paper on Renewable Sources of Energy set the goal of doubling the share of renewable energy in the EU from 6% to 12% by 2010.

One of the targets of the Commission’s White Paper was to increase the EU electricityproduction from renewable energy sources from 337 TWh in 1995 to 675 TWh in 2010. Within this target, the goal for wind power was for 40,000 MW (40 GW) of installed capacity in 2010. This target was reached in 2005.

The EU Renewables Directive from 2001 that followed the White Paper set national indicative targets for the contribution of electricity from renewable energy sources as a percentage of gross electricity consumption. The overall Community goal is to increase renewables’ share of electricity from 14% in 1997 to 21% in 2010.

 

 

May 5, 2011
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The progress of wind energy

Wind technology has made major progression from the prototypes of just 25 years ago.

Wind energy has come of age, and now constitutes a mainstream power technology that is largely underexploited.


Two decades of technological progress have resulted in today’s wind turbines acting much more like conventional power stations, in addition to being modular and rapid to install.

At a given site, a single modern wind turbine annually produces 180 times more electricity and at less than half the cost per kWh than its equivalent twenty years ago.

The wind power sector includes some of the world’s largest energy companies.

Effective regulatory and policy frameworks have been developed and implemented in many countries, and Europe is the world leader in wind energy.

Whilst progress to date has been proven, it is the tip of the iceberg in terms of the true deployment potential of wind power.

Europe leads the world in developing wind energy as a pollution-free fuel for electricity generation. Over the past decade wind power has proved the most successful of all the new renewable sources.

  • In 1994 there was 1,683 MW of wind energy installed across the EU. By the end of 2005 the fi gure had increased 24 times to 40,504 MW
  • The average annual growth rate in cumulative installation over the past decade (1995-2005) was 32%
  • European companies are world leaders in the manufacturing of wind turbines and their components
  • Seven of the top ten turbine manufacturing companies are based in Europe. In 2004 they accounted for 82% of the global market for wind turbines.

Europe has installed 40,504 MW of wind energy by the end of 2005.


Between 2000 and 2030 total electricity consumption is expected to increase an expected 52% under a business-as-usual scenario.

The percentage contribution wind can make to European power supply is to a large degree infl uenced by the overall electricity consumption. This can be demonstrated by looking at the 965 TWh from wind power generated in 2030. In that year this will provide 22% of future European electricity needs, and is equal to 32% of present European electricity consumption.

The 300 GW would be half on shore and half offshore.

 

May 5, 2011
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Climate security

Climate change poses one of the greatest challenges to the world community, and energy technology will play a central role. Implementation of the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is the driving policy framework for the EU.

The 2005 Spring Council endorsed the target of limiting the future global average temperature increase to 2ºC above pre-industrial level and indicated its willingness to explore with other countries the possibility of reducing greenhouse gas emission from industrialised countries by 15-30% by the year 2020.

CO2 is by far the most important greenhouse gas in the EU, accounting for 82% of total greenhouse gas emissions. Of that, electricity and heat production comprises the largest source. Since 1990, C02 emissions in the EU15 have increased by 3.4% and from 2002-2003 increased by 1.8%, 59 million tonnes. This was mainly due to an increase in power production using coal.

Renewable energies such as wind power are today providing a central role. The European Environment Agency (EEA) assessment on greenhouse gas emission trends in Europe concluded that “the promotion of renewable energy has the greatest impact on emissions in most EU Member States for both implemented and planned policies”. According to EEA analysis, “the largest emissions savings for the EU-15 are projected to be from renewable energy policies, followed by the landfi ll directive”.

By 2010, wind energy in Europe is predicted to have saved over 500 million tonnes of CO2. The 75 GW of wind energy installed in Europe by 2010 is expected to meet one third of the EU’s 2010 Kyoto target.

Limiting carbon from fossil fuels is at the heart of climate change policies. Wind energy is a leading part of the solution.

 

May 4, 2011
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Energy security

Europe is facing an energy crisis. We now live in an era of energy uncertainty. The days of cheap and abundantly available energy are over.

Europe is running out of indigenous energy resources at a time of increased prices, diminishing resources and their concentration into fewer, more geopolitically sensitive regions, and greater international competition for the remaining energy resources.

The price of oil and gas remained fairly static for nearly two decades and this lulled many into a false sense of security.The prices of oil and gas have more than tripled since 2001. The last three global recessions were caused by oil price rises. The IMF says that “oil prices will continue to present a serious risk to the global economy”.

At the same time, there are concerns about the real level of known and realisable oil and gas reserves, and when peak production and the associated price increases occur.


This coincides with fears over the security of supply coming from politically unstable regions, and a reduction in countries that have resources.

Europe is an energy intensive region heavily reliant on imports; already today, it imports 50% of its energy needs, projected to increase to 70% within two decades. By 2030, oil imports would rise from 76% to 88% and gas imports from 50% to 81%, compared to 2000. Indigenous fossil fuel resources, such as in the North Sea, are in rapid decline. Global known uranium reserves amount to two and a half million tonnes, equal to 40 years’ demand at present consumption rates. The European Union is home to barely 2 % of the world’s natural uranium reserves.

In 2000, when fuel prices were far lower than today, the European Commission’s Green Paper on Security of Supply recognised the potential of renewable energy sources: “Renewable sources of energy have a considerable potential for increasing security of supply in Europe.. […] In the medium term, renewables are the only source of energy in which the European Union has a certain amount of room for manoeuvre aimed at increasing supply in the current circumstances.” It continued: “Effectively, the only way of infl uencing [European energy] supply is to make serious efforts with renewable sources.”

 

May 4, 2011
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Rising energy demand

Rising energy demand

According to the European Commission’s Baseline business-as-usual scenario, electricity demand will increase 52% between 2000 and 2030.

Total installed power generation capacity will increase by about 400 GW, from 656 GW in 2000 to 1,118 GW in 2030, and additionally about 365 GW of current power stations are to be retired or decommissioned.


The total new build requirement in Europe to 2030 is 761 GW, more than the entire European power capacity in existence today.

Some 80% of incremental energy consumption to 2030 is predicted to be met by gas.

A dramatic increase in power consumption will require substantial investments in generation assets.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) the EU will need to invest €100 billion in transmission networks and €340 billion in distribution networks for reinforcement, asset replacements and new connections over the three decades from 2001- 2030.


Irrespective of whatever policy is chosen by the EU, massive investments in generation plants and grids are required. For policy-makers, the question is the priority to be assigned to different technologies.

 

May 4, 2011
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No Fuel – Overview

No Fuel – Overview

1. Europe is facing an energy crisis. We now live in an era of energy uncertainty. The days of cheap and abundantly available energy are over.

2. Europe is running out of indigenous energy resources at a time of increased prices, diminishing resources and their concentration into fewer, more geopolitically sensitive regions, and greater international competition for energy resources.

3. At the same time demand for power is increasing, and many power plants will be retired, so combined the total demand for new electricity generation capacity across Europe is predicted to increase by 760 GW by 2030.

4. Limiting the effects of climate change requires a reduction in carbon emissions from the power sector.

5. Europe is an energy intensive region heavily reliant on imports; already today, it imports 50% of its energy needs, projected to increase to 70% within two decades. By 2030, oil imports would rise from 76% to 88% and gas imports from 50% to 81%, compared to 2000. Indigenous fossil fuel resources, such as the North Sea oil and gas reserves, are in rapid decline.

6. Europe’s dependency on imported fossil fuels has become a threat to economic stability because of the impact of increased fuel prices on the cost base.

7. Europe is the world leader in renewable energy and in the most promising and mature renewable energy technology, wind power.

8. Europe is wealthy in wind energy resources – there is enough resources to power the entire continent.

9. Wind energy has made rapid progress in recent years – in technology, in costs and in market deployment. Yet its exploitation remains low in Europe.

10. Wind energy ensures that the economic future of Europe can be planned on the basis of known and predictable cost of electricity derived from an indigenous energy source free of all the security, political, economic and environmental disadvantages associated with oil, coal, gas and nuclear.

11. A prevailing myth is that wind cannot be mainstream because it is intermittent. The capacity of European power systems to absorb significant amounts of wind power is determined more by economics and regulatory rules than by technical or practical constraints.

12. A large contribution from wind energy to European power generation is feasible in the same order of magnitude as coal, gas or nuclear.

13. Wind energy is ready to serve as one of the leading solutions for European energy needs – for security of supply, for energy independence as well as meeting climate goals and rising demand for energy.

No fuel. Wind power has unique characteristics: it has zero fuel price risk, zero fuel costs and extremely low operation and maintenance costs.

In addition, wind power provides total protection and zero risk from carbon costs, and zero geo-political risk associated with supply and infrastructure constraints or political dependence on other countries. Wind power has no resource constraints; the fuel is free and endless.

Unlike conventional fuels, wind energy is a massive indigenous power source permanently available.

Wind power stations can be constructed and deliver power far quicker than conventional sources.

Electricity production from wind turbines avoids the risks of using conventional fuels, for the self-evident reason that there is no fuel. Wind is clean, free, indigenous, and inexhaustible.