Romania’s plans for new combined cycle gas turbines with a total capacity of 2.15 GW isn’t economically viable and, if constructed, the facilities should be decommissioned by 2035, according to ENTSO-E’s annual assessment of Europe’s security of electricity supply for the ten years ahead.
ENTSO-E’s European Resource Adequacy Assessment 2024 (ERAA 2024) provides an integrated pan-European perspective for the years 2026, 2028, 2030 and 2035.
The document includes comments on individual countries, specific insights provided by transmission system operators (TSOs).
According to the entry about Romania, low adequacy concerns have been identified in ERAA 2024. The findings rely on assumptions from the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP), in place on the date of the data collection, as well as from investment plans, permits, connection requests, and available inputs from market participants.
NECP’s central reference scenario reflects the coal phase-out process and further plans for the replacement of the decommissioned capacity with, mainly, combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) power plants, the document reads.
The results of the economic viability assessment show 2.15 GW of CCGT capacity would not be economically viable by the 2035 horizon
The commissioning of envisioned gas CCGTs is, however, highly uncertain, and national analyses reveal that the validity of the adequacy indicators depends on the implementation of generation goals, the update showed.
Uncertainties related to the commissioning date of the new capacities may have an adverse impact on Romania and, potentially, on the region, the document underlines.
Moreover, results of the economic viability assessment (EVA), part of ERAA 2024, demonstrate that the 2.15 GW of envisaged CCGT capacity would not be economically viable by the 2035 horizon and should be decommissioned in target year 2035.
Considering it is not existing capacity, but rather assumed commissioned in the 2026-2030 period, it is most likely the investments will not materialize at all and thus, the correspondent capacity should be excluded from the analysis for the earlier target years, too, not only 2035, with a negative effect on loss-of-load-expectation (LOLE) results, the authors warned.
Goal in NECP is 2.6 GW of CCGT power plants
According to Romania’s NECP, the goal is 2030 to construct at least 2.6 GW of natural gas–powered CCGTs and around 900 MW of natural-gas-fired combined heat and power (CHP) plants.
The CCGT facilities are Iernut (430 MW), Mintia (at least 860 MW, with a possibility of reaching 1.700 MW), and Ișalnița and Turceni, of 1,325 MW in total.
Investments aren’t going as planned. In January, Minister of Energy Sebastian Burduja acknowledged that the addition of gas-fired units expected in line with the restructuring plan for Complexul Energetic Oltenia – CE Oltenia has been delayed.
Burduja: Mintia to be operational next year
Tenders were launched, such as the one for Ișalnița, but not a single offer was submitted, he added. In Burduja’s words, it is one of the reasons why the operation of coal power plants should be extended.
State-owned CE Oltenia is the largest producer of coal power and the third-largest producer of electricity in the country. Its restructuring plan envisages lignite-based electricity production to be replaced with natural gas, in Işalniţa and Turceni, and renewables.
The Mintia project got the construction permit in January. In March, Burduja said it would be commissioned next year, according to Romania Insider.
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