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Mitigation Potential and Costs

Renewable energy (RE) has the potential to play an important and increasing role in achieving ambitious climate mitigation targets. Many RE technologies are increasingly becoming market competitive, although some innovative RE technologies are not yet mature, economic alternatives to non-RE technologies. However, assessing the future role of RE requires not only consideration of the cost and performance of RE technologies, but also an integrative perspective that takes into account the interactions between various forces and the overall systems behaviors.

[gview file=”https://info.aea-al.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Ch10-Mitigation-Potential-and-Costs.pdf” save=”1″]

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Renewable Energy in the Context of Sustainable Development

Historically, economic development has been strongly correlated with increasing energy use and growth of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Renewable energy (RE) can help decouple that correlation, contributing to sustainable development (SD). In addition, RE offers the opportunity to improve access to modern energy services for the poorest members of society, which is crucial for the achievement of any single of the eight Millennium Development Goals.

[gview file=”https://info.aea-al.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Ch9-Renewable-Energy-in-the-Context-of-Sustainable-Development.pdf” save=”1″]

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Integration of Renewable Energy into Present and Future Energy Systems

In many countries, suffi cient RE resources are available for system integration to meet a major share of energy demands, either by direct input to end-use sectors or indirectly through present and future energy supply systems and energy carriers, whether for large or small communities in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) or non-OECD countries. At the same time, the characteristics of many RE resources that distinguish them from fossil fuels and nuclear systems include their natural unpredictability and variability over time scales ranging from seconds to years. These can constrain the ease of integration and result in additional system costs, particularly when reaching higher RE shares of electricity, heat or gaseous and liquid fuels.

[gview file=”https://info.aea-al.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Ch8-Integration-of-Renewable.pdf” save=”1″]

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Wind Energy

Wind energy offers signifi cant potential for near-term (2020) and long-term (2050) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions. A number of different wind energy technologies are available across a range of applications, but the primary use of wind energy of relevance to climate change mitigation is to generate electricity from larger, grid-connected wind turbines, deployed either on- or offshore. Focusing on these technologies, the wind power capacity installed by the end of 2009 was capable of meeting roughly 1.8% of worldwide electricity demand, and that contribution could grow to in excess of 20% by 2050 if ambitious efforts are made to reduce GHG emissions and to address the other impediments to increased wind energy deployment. Onshore wind energy is already being deployed at a rapid pace in many countries,
and no insurmountable technical barriers exist that preclude increased levels of wind energy penetration into electricity supply systems. Moreover, though average wind speeds vary considerably by location, ample technical potential exists in most regions of the world to enable signifi cant wind energy deployment. In some areas with good wind resources, the cost of wind energy is already competitive with current energy market prices, even without considering relative environmental impacts. Nonetheless, in most regions of the world, policy measures are still required to ensure rapid deployment. Continued advances in on- and offshore wind energy technology are expected, however, further reducing the cost of wind energy and improving wind energy’s GHG emissions reduction potential.

[gview file=”https://info.aea-al.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Ch7-Wind-Energy.pdf” save=”1″]

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Ocean Energy

Ocean energy offers the potential for long-term carbon emissions reduction but is unlikely to make a significant short term contribution before 2020 due to its nascent stage of development. In 2009, additionally installed ocean capacity was less than 10 MW worldwide, yielding a cumulative installed capacity of approximately 300 MW by the end of 2009. All ocean energy technologies, except tidal barrages, are conceptual, undergoing research and development (R&D), or are in the pre-commercial prototype and demonstration stage. The performance of ocean energy technologies is anticipated to improve steadily over time as experience is gained and new technologies are able to access poorer quality resources. Whether these technical advances lead to sufficient associated cost reductions to enable broad-scale deployment of ocean energy is the most critical uncertainty in assessing the future role of ocean energy in mitigating climate change. Though technical potential is not anticipated to be a primary global barrier to ocean energy deployment, resource characteristics will require that local communities in the future select among multiple available ocean technologies to suit local resource conditions.

[gview file=”https://info.aea-al.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Ch6-Ocean-Energy.pdf” save=”1″]

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Hydropower

Hydropower offers signifi cant potential for carbon emissions reductions. The installed capacity of hydropower by the end of 2008 contributed 16% of worldwide electricity supply, and hydropower remains the largest source of renewable energy in the electricity sector. On a global basis, the technical potential for hydropower is unlikely to constrain further deployment in the near to medium term. Hydropower is technically mature, is often economically competitive with current market energy prices and is already being deployed at a rapid pace. Situated at the crossroads of two major issues for development, water and energy, hydro reservoirs can often deliver services beyond electricity supply. The signifi cant increase in hydropower capacity over the last 10 years is anticipated in many scenarios to continue in the near term (2020) and medium term (2030), with various environmental and social concerns representing perhaps the largest challenges to continued deployment if not carefully managed.

[gview file=”https://info.aea-al.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Ch5-Hydropower.pdf” save=”1″]