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May 4, 2011
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Energy security

Europe is facing an energy crisis. We now live in an era of energy uncertainty. The days of cheap and abundantly available energy are over.

Europe is running out of indigenous energy resources at a time of increased prices, diminishing resources and their concentration into fewer, more geopolitically sensitive regions, and greater international competition for the remaining energy resources.

The price of oil and gas remained fairly static for nearly two decades and this lulled many into a false sense of security.The prices of oil and gas have more than tripled since 2001. The last three global recessions were caused by oil price rises. The IMF says that “oil prices will continue to present a serious risk to the global economy”.

At the same time, there are concerns about the real level of known and realisable oil and gas reserves, and when peak production and the associated price increases occur.


This coincides with fears over the security of supply coming from politically unstable regions, and a reduction in countries that have resources.

Europe is an energy intensive region heavily reliant on imports; already today, it imports 50% of its energy needs, projected to increase to 70% within two decades. By 2030, oil imports would rise from 76% to 88% and gas imports from 50% to 81%, compared to 2000. Indigenous fossil fuel resources, such as in the North Sea, are in rapid decline. Global known uranium reserves amount to two and a half million tonnes, equal to 40 years’ demand at present consumption rates. The European Union is home to barely 2 % of the world’s natural uranium reserves.

In 2000, when fuel prices were far lower than today, the European Commission’s Green Paper on Security of Supply recognised the potential of renewable energy sources: “Renewable sources of energy have a considerable potential for increasing security of supply in Europe.. […] In the medium term, renewables are the only source of energy in which the European Union has a certain amount of room for manoeuvre aimed at increasing supply in the current circumstances.” It continued: “Effectively, the only way of infl uencing [European energy] supply is to make serious efforts with renewable sources.”

 

May 4, 2011
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Rising energy demand

Rising energy demand

According to the European Commission’s Baseline business-as-usual scenario, electricity demand will increase 52% between 2000 and 2030.

Total installed power generation capacity will increase by about 400 GW, from 656 GW in 2000 to 1,118 GW in 2030, and additionally about 365 GW of current power stations are to be retired or decommissioned.


The total new build requirement in Europe to 2030 is 761 GW, more than the entire European power capacity in existence today.

Some 80% of incremental energy consumption to 2030 is predicted to be met by gas.

A dramatic increase in power consumption will require substantial investments in generation assets.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) the EU will need to invest €100 billion in transmission networks and €340 billion in distribution networks for reinforcement, asset replacements and new connections over the three decades from 2001- 2030.


Irrespective of whatever policy is chosen by the EU, massive investments in generation plants and grids are required. For policy-makers, the question is the priority to be assigned to different technologies.

 

May 4, 2011
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No Fuel – Overview

No Fuel – Overview

1. Europe is facing an energy crisis. We now live in an era of energy uncertainty. The days of cheap and abundantly available energy are over.

2. Europe is running out of indigenous energy resources at a time of increased prices, diminishing resources and their concentration into fewer, more geopolitically sensitive regions, and greater international competition for energy resources.

3. At the same time demand for power is increasing, and many power plants will be retired, so combined the total demand for new electricity generation capacity across Europe is predicted to increase by 760 GW by 2030.

4. Limiting the effects of climate change requires a reduction in carbon emissions from the power sector.

5. Europe is an energy intensive region heavily reliant on imports; already today, it imports 50% of its energy needs, projected to increase to 70% within two decades. By 2030, oil imports would rise from 76% to 88% and gas imports from 50% to 81%, compared to 2000. Indigenous fossil fuel resources, such as the North Sea oil and gas reserves, are in rapid decline.

6. Europe’s dependency on imported fossil fuels has become a threat to economic stability because of the impact of increased fuel prices on the cost base.

7. Europe is the world leader in renewable energy and in the most promising and mature renewable energy technology, wind power.

8. Europe is wealthy in wind energy resources – there is enough resources to power the entire continent.

9. Wind energy has made rapid progress in recent years – in technology, in costs and in market deployment. Yet its exploitation remains low in Europe.

10. Wind energy ensures that the economic future of Europe can be planned on the basis of known and predictable cost of electricity derived from an indigenous energy source free of all the security, political, economic and environmental disadvantages associated with oil, coal, gas and nuclear.

11. A prevailing myth is that wind cannot be mainstream because it is intermittent. The capacity of European power systems to absorb significant amounts of wind power is determined more by economics and regulatory rules than by technical or practical constraints.

12. A large contribution from wind energy to European power generation is feasible in the same order of magnitude as coal, gas or nuclear.

13. Wind energy is ready to serve as one of the leading solutions for European energy needs – for security of supply, for energy independence as well as meeting climate goals and rising demand for energy.

No fuel. Wind power has unique characteristics: it has zero fuel price risk, zero fuel costs and extremely low operation and maintenance costs.

In addition, wind power provides total protection and zero risk from carbon costs, and zero geo-political risk associated with supply and infrastructure constraints or political dependence on other countries. Wind power has no resource constraints; the fuel is free and endless.

Unlike conventional fuels, wind energy is a massive indigenous power source permanently available.

Wind power stations can be constructed and deliver power far quicker than conventional sources.

Electricity production from wind turbines avoids the risks of using conventional fuels, for the self-evident reason that there is no fuel. Wind is clean, free, indigenous, and inexhaustible.

 

May 4, 2011
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Wind Power without fuel

Europe is wealthy in wind resources – enough wind blows across Europe to power the entire continent. Today, tomorrow and forever.
Wind energy can meet more than one fifth of Europe’s power demand by 2030, even with a predicted 50% increase in consumption.
Europe is facing an energy crisis. Wind energy can serve as a leading solution – to security of supply, energy independence, rising demand, and mitigation of climate change.

external energy dependence

energy imports

fuel costs

fuel price risk

exploration

extraction

refining

pipelines

resource constraints

CO2 emissions

radioactive waste