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May 5, 2011
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European Wind Energy Association-Official scenarios

The electricity production from wind energy and its contribution to meeting European electricity consumption is:

83 TWh in 2005 (2.8% of European electricity demand),
to 188 TWh in 2010 (5.5%),
to 523 TWh in 2020 (13.4%),
to 965 TWh in 2030 (22.6%).

EWEA Targets

In 1991 EWEA set a target to install 4,000 MW of wind in 2000. This was revised in 1997 to 8,000 MW. In 2000 the actual wind installed in Europe was 12,887 MW three times higher than the fi gure set nine years previously.

In 1997 EWEA set a target of 40 GW installed in 2010 (the same target as the Commission White Paper) and 100 GW in 2020. In 2000 EWEA set a target of 60 GW in 2010 and 150 GW in 2020.

Three years later in 2000 EWEA revised its target to 60,000 MW by 2010 (including 5,000 MW offshore) and 150,000 MW by 2020 (including 50,000 MW offshore).

In 2003, EWEA further revised its target to 75,000 MW by 2010 and 180,000 MW by 2020 (including 70,000 MW offshore).

Today in 2005, EWEA has updated this target and extended the period to 2030, resulting in a total installation of 300 GW, 150,000 MW of this offshore.

 

May 5, 2011
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International Energy Agency – Official scenarios

International Energy Agency

Reference or baseline scenarios are not presented as business-as-usual or fixed outcomes, but typically are used for comparison, and present the theoretical case where no action is taken, which is not considered a politically realistic viewpoint. The IEA Reference scenario “takes into account all government policies and initiatives that had been adopted by mid-2004. It does not include policy initiatives that might be adopted in the future. Energy markets will probably evolve in different ways from those depicted in this scenario, because the policy landscape will change.”

Similarly the 2003 EU Energy scenario “takes into account existing policies and those in the process of being implemented at the end of 2001” and does not include the Renewables Directive and “additional policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions”

The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimations in it’s Reference Scenario, presented in 2002 for wind energy was for 33 GW in 2010, 57 GW in 2020 and 71 GW in 2030.

In 2004, the IEA Reference Scenario projections were updated to 66GW in 2010, 131 GW in 2020 and 170 GW in 2030.

Within two years the IEA forecast for wind power installed in the EU for 2010 were doubled.

Advanced scenarios on wind energy

The IEA Advanced Scenario “considers those policies and measures that countries are currently considering or might reasonably be expected to adopt taking account of technical and cost factors, the political context and market barriers. The aim is to present a consistent picture of how global energy markets might evolve if governments decide to strengthen their environmental and energy-security policies.”

The IEA Advanced scenario projected a wind energy market of 75 GW in 2010, 145 GW in 2020 and 202 GW in 2030.

 

May 5, 2011
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European Commission – Official scenarios

European Commission

Baseline scenarios provide a reference comparison for a range of alternative scenarios and energy policy options. The reference scenario from IEA and the Commission on wind power are described here. In earlier reports the data was not separated from other renewables such as solar and geothermal.

The European Commission made no estimates for wind energy in 1992.

In 1996 under a ‘Conventional wisdom’ scenario it projected a market for wind and solar to be 4.38 GW in 2000, 6.1 GW in 2005, 8.01 GW in 2010, 10.1 GW in 2015 and 12.34 GW in 2020. The 2020 figure was reached in 2000 by wind alone.

The 1996 ‘advanced scenario’ projected a market of 6.82 GW in 2000, 11.62 GW in 2005, in 2010, 17.68 GW in 2010, 23.67 GW in 2015 and 30.28 in 2020. The 2020 fi gure was reached in early 2004 by wind alone. The 1999 Commission base scenario projections for wind, solar and geothermal was 9.4 GW in 2000, 16 GW in 2005, 23 GW in 2010, 34.4 GW in 2015 and 46.2 GW in 2020. The 2015 figure has already been reached at the end of 2004 by wind alone.

In 2003 the Commission Baseline scenario projections for wind and solar were 28.6 GW in 2005, 74 GW in 2010, 92.6 GW in 2015, 105.3 GW in 2020, 126.4 GW in 2025 and 149.4 GW in 2030

Between 1996 and 2003, the Commission’s estimate of how much wind power would be built in 2010 was increased ninefold.

In 2004 the Commission Baseline scenario projections for wind and solar were 28 GW in 2005, 73.2 GW in 2010, 91.7 GW in 2015, 104.1 GW in 2020, 125.2 GW in 2025 and 149.2 GW in 2030.

Advanced scenarios on wind energy

The 2003 European Commission scenario presented a number of different scenarios with an increased role for renewables and wind energy. The advanced scenario is ‘Gothenburg type targets’ which provides details for wind energy on its own.

The ‘Gothenburg type targets’ projected installed wind energy capacity of 79.8 GW in 2010, 144.8 GW in 2020 and 213.5 GW in 2030.

 

May 5, 2011
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Official scenarios

For long-term energy scenarios, there are two established authorities. The European Commission has been publishing its long-term energy scenarios since the 1990s. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has published its World Energy Outlook which has a Reference Scenario and recently, Alternative Scenario. EWEA provides wind energy data for Europe.

To date, all targets and future projections for wind energy set by the European Commission, by IEA and by EWEA have been surpassed.

European targets – background

In 1997 the European Commission White Paper on Renewable Sources of Energy set the goal of doubling the share of renewable energy in the EU from 6% to 12% by 2010.

One of the targets of the Commission’s White Paper was to increase the EU electricityproduction from renewable energy sources from 337 TWh in 1995 to 675 TWh in 2010. Within this target, the goal for wind power was for 40,000 MW (40 GW) of installed capacity in 2010. This target was reached in 2005.

The EU Renewables Directive from 2001 that followed the White Paper set national indicative targets for the contribution of electricity from renewable energy sources as a percentage of gross electricity consumption. The overall Community goal is to increase renewables’ share of electricity from 14% in 1997 to 21% in 2010.

 

 

May 5, 2011
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The progress of wind energy

Wind technology has made major progression from the prototypes of just 25 years ago.

Wind energy has come of age, and now constitutes a mainstream power technology that is largely underexploited.


Two decades of technological progress have resulted in today’s wind turbines acting much more like conventional power stations, in addition to being modular and rapid to install.

At a given site, a single modern wind turbine annually produces 180 times more electricity and at less than half the cost per kWh than its equivalent twenty years ago.

The wind power sector includes some of the world’s largest energy companies.

Effective regulatory and policy frameworks have been developed and implemented in many countries, and Europe is the world leader in wind energy.

Whilst progress to date has been proven, it is the tip of the iceberg in terms of the true deployment potential of wind power.

Europe leads the world in developing wind energy as a pollution-free fuel for electricity generation. Over the past decade wind power has proved the most successful of all the new renewable sources.

  • In 1994 there was 1,683 MW of wind energy installed across the EU. By the end of 2005 the fi gure had increased 24 times to 40,504 MW
  • The average annual growth rate in cumulative installation over the past decade (1995-2005) was 32%
  • European companies are world leaders in the manufacturing of wind turbines and their components
  • Seven of the top ten turbine manufacturing companies are based in Europe. In 2004 they accounted for 82% of the global market for wind turbines.

Europe has installed 40,504 MW of wind energy by the end of 2005.


Between 2000 and 2030 total electricity consumption is expected to increase an expected 52% under a business-as-usual scenario.

The percentage contribution wind can make to European power supply is to a large degree infl uenced by the overall electricity consumption. This can be demonstrated by looking at the 965 TWh from wind power generated in 2030. In that year this will provide 22% of future European electricity needs, and is equal to 32% of present European electricity consumption.

The 300 GW would be half on shore and half offshore.

 

May 5, 2011
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Climate security

Climate change poses one of the greatest challenges to the world community, and energy technology will play a central role. Implementation of the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is the driving policy framework for the EU.

The 2005 Spring Council endorsed the target of limiting the future global average temperature increase to 2ºC above pre-industrial level and indicated its willingness to explore with other countries the possibility of reducing greenhouse gas emission from industrialised countries by 15-30% by the year 2020.

CO2 is by far the most important greenhouse gas in the EU, accounting for 82% of total greenhouse gas emissions. Of that, electricity and heat production comprises the largest source. Since 1990, C02 emissions in the EU15 have increased by 3.4% and from 2002-2003 increased by 1.8%, 59 million tonnes. This was mainly due to an increase in power production using coal.

Renewable energies such as wind power are today providing a central role. The European Environment Agency (EEA) assessment on greenhouse gas emission trends in Europe concluded that “the promotion of renewable energy has the greatest impact on emissions in most EU Member States for both implemented and planned policies”. According to EEA analysis, “the largest emissions savings for the EU-15 are projected to be from renewable energy policies, followed by the landfi ll directive”.

By 2010, wind energy in Europe is predicted to have saved over 500 million tonnes of CO2. The 75 GW of wind energy installed in Europe by 2010 is expected to meet one third of the EU’s 2010 Kyoto target.

Limiting carbon from fossil fuels is at the heart of climate change policies. Wind energy is a leading part of the solution.